Effective from: Fri 24 May '13, 12:53PM

Forecast prepared by Ben Matson.
Next update Fri 24/5 5pm.

Previous day's summary:

Small leftover SE swell merged with a freshening SE wind on Thursday to offer little waves of interest across southern NSW. These winds kicked up a local swell which continued to build overnight, coming in slightly higher than forecast at most southern NSW beaches this morning. However, quality is very low at most locations with fresh to strong S/SE winds. 

Forecast period ahead:

OK. The general trend for Saturday is a slowly easing version of today. Winds will generally be moderate to fresh southerly, however some parts of the southern NSW coast - such as the Northern Beaches - often experiences SW winds under these patterns, due to local topographical influences. However, don't expect a great deal of quality in the swell, as it'll still be short range, locally generated stuff out of the east.

Sunday looks much better with a general W/SW airstream across the coast. The short range E'ly swell will continue to ease however a new southerly groundswell - originating from a series of deep lows below Tasmania today - will push through, providing straight 3ft+ sets at south facing beaches by the afternoon.

The weather system(s) responsible for Sunday's swell will be quickly followed by a series of strong secondary systems, that are expected to be steered up into the eastern Tasman Sea as a long wave trough amplifies over New Zealand longitudes. The latest model runs have slightly sped up their forward progression, which means that we may not see a temporary lull in activity early Monday as was forecast on Wednesday - instead, we're looking at a slow gradual increase throughout the day, holding through much of Tuesday and early Wednesday before easing into the back half of the week. Wave heights should hold reach a peak around 3-4ft+ at south facing beaches during this time, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Hunter region picked up a handful of bigger sets near 5-6ft at the height of the swell (probably Tuesday).

As for conditions, we are looking at a moderate southerly change pushing along the coast on Monday, so apart from early offshore winds there is a risk for unfavourable cross-shore winds to develop throughout the day. A developing high in the Tasman on Tuesday will steer the winds around to the northern quadrant (early NW, possibly NE later) before a general W/NW flow sets up camp on Wednesday. So on the whole there are very good opportunities for surfing early to mid next week.

Looking further ahead, and a blocking pattern is expected to develop across our southern swell window from mix-next week onwards, which will halt significant swell activity from this region into the second half of next week and possibly the weekend. We will consequently see the trades develop below Fiji around the same time, but the resulting E'ly swell from it will probably be small in Sydney. More on this next Monday.