Slow days ahead with better surf next week

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Western Australian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday April 10th)

Best Days: Keen surfers tomorrow morning in the South West, Tuesday and Wednesday mornings in the South West, Thursday morning in the South West, Friday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Small, inconsistent S/SW swell for tomorrow AM, easing
  • Small mid-period SW swell building Mon with E/SE winds ahead of strong sea breezes
  • Moderate sized S/SW groundswell building Tue, easing slowly Wed
  • Moderate E/NE winds ahead of sea breezes both Tue/Wed
  • Inconsistent W/SW groundswell building Thu, peaking Fri with morning E/NE-NE winds

Recap

Conditions were nice and clean with an easing SW swell yesterday, down from 4ft across the South West, smaller and to 2-3ft today. Perth and Mandurah are tiny to flat.

This week and next (April 11 - 19)

Looking at the coming period and tomorrow looks to remain on the small side with the surf bottoming out on the weekend.

A late forming polar front has generated a small pulse of inconsistent S/SW swell for this evening, peaking tomorrow morning to 3ft+ across the South West magnets, easing through the day.

Conditions will be nice and clean again with a gusty E'ly offshore, easing later morning ahead of strong sea breezes. Similar winds are due Friday but with smaller, easing surf.

The weekend will see winds shift from NE to S'th as a trough moves through but with no new swell.

Apart from a small lift in mid-period SW swell through Monday, the next noticeable increase in energy will arrive from the S/SW Tuesday, with it being groundswell spreading radially off a great polar storm firing up really late in our swell window.

A fetch of SW gales will fire up to our south-southwest on Saturday, with it being quite slow moving, helping the longevity of the swell.

We should see it arriving Tuesday morning, building to 4-5ft+ across the South West during the day, though being tiny further north.

Slowing easing sets from 4-5ft are then due Wednesday as the swell tends even more south.

Winds look favourable for this swell and moderate from the E/NE on Tuesday morning, giving into strong sea breezes, with similar Wednesday but with weaker sea breezes.

Following this we then look at the storms firing up off South Africa and south of Madagascar today through the weekend.

While quite a distance from us, the on positive is the longevity of this mid-latitude frontal activity.

An initial frontal system is generating a fetch gale-force SW winds, with a low due to form south of Madagascar, generating a better, stationary fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds.

This looks to produce some inconsistent but good moderate + sized W/SW groundswell for next Thursday/Friday.

A building tend is due next Thursday, with a peak due Friday, likely to an inconsistent 5-6ft in the South West with 1-2ft waves to the north.

Winds at this early stage look E/NE-NE in the mornings but we'll review this Friday.

Comments

yodai's picture
yodai's picture
yodai Wednesday, 10 Apr 2024 at 5:04pm

So no contest for a few days?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 10 Apr 2024 at 5:24pm

Looks it.