Tricky end to the week, fun early next week

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Western Australian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday April 3rd)

Best Days: South magnets tomorrow afternoon and Friday afternoon, Monday morning, Tuesday morning, Wednesday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Small, building S/SW swell later tomorrow, easing Fri
  • Small-moderate sized, inconsistent SW groundswell building Fri, peaking overnight, easing Sat
  • Fresh E/NE tending N/NE winds tomorrow AM, lighter N/NW into the PM
  • Moderate E/NE-NE tending N/NE winds Fri, lighter N/NW into the PM
  • Mod-fresh S/SE-SE tending strong S winds Sat
  • Small Sun with gusty S/SE-SE winds, strengthening
  • Moderate sized + mid-period SW swell building Mon PM, peaking Tue AM
  • Strong E/SE winds Mon and Tue AM, ahead of sea breezes

Recap

Windy, clean conditions across the South West yesterday morning and this morning but with small background levels of S/SW swell in the 3ft range, a touch bigger today.

This week and next (April 4 - 12)

Today's small spike of mid-period S/SW swell is due to ease into tomorrow morning, likely coming in at a slow 2ft to sometimes 3ft across the magnets with a fresh E/NE offshore, tending N/NE and then light N/NW later in the day.

Our small pulse of new S/SW swell for the afternoon looks later rather than early, with it generated by pre-frontal W/NW winds, to our south-west yesterday. This only looks to kick to 3ft+, with a better pulse of SW groundswell due to fill in Friday afternoon.

As touched on in Monday's notes, the source of this swell was a slim but healthy fetch of gale to severe-gale W'ly winds across the polar shelf Sunday/Monday, west of the Heard Island region.

This should produce an inconsistent swell that's due to reach 4-5ft across the South West, tiny to the north.

Winds on Friday morning look E/NE-NE through the morning, shifting N/NE later morning and then N/NW into the afternoon again. It shouldn't be too strong so there should be some fun waves for the keen as the new swell arrives.

Saturday will see the SW groundswell on the ease, likely dropping from 3-5ft in the South West but with less favourable, fresh and gusty S/SE-SE morning winds strengthening from the S'th into the afternoon.

Sunday looks to hang in the 3-4ft range across the South West but with stronger S/SE-SE morning winds.

Early next week looks better for surf across the South West thanks to a strengthening polar frontal system swinging in from the west later this week and through the weekend.

We're due to see fetches of strong to gale-force W-W/SW winds generated through our south-western swell window, generating a moderate + sized mid-period SW swell for Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning.

Size wise the South West should peak around 4-6ft, with 1-2ft sets likely in Mandurah Tuesday morning, 1-1.5ft across Perth. Winds look great and offshore from the E/SE on Tuesday morning, with the size easing slowly into Wednesday and Thursday as offshore winds persist.

As touched on in Monday's notes, the outlook from the end of next week and beyond looks slow with a strong node of the Long Wave Trough expected to develop over towards Victoria.

This will see all the Southern Ocean frontal activity focussed up, under the country, out of our swell window with high pressure dominating to our west.

More on this Friday.