Southern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday October 18th)

Best Days: Tomorrow morning, Friday morning, possibly Sunday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate sized SW groundswell this afternoon, easing tomorrow with N tending E then fresh S/SE winds
• Reinforcing SW swell Fri AM with N tending fresh S/SE winds
• Small to tiny Sat with strong E/NE winds
• Building S/SE swell Sun with variable tending strong S/SW winds
• Easing swell Mon with strong S/SW winds

Recap

Good, clean easing surf through yesterday from 2ft+ across Clifton with morning offshores ahead of sea breezes. This morning was still 2ft but this afternoon a stronger groundswell is due to fill in, reaching 3-4ft by dark but conditions are average with a gusty sea breeze.

This week and weekend (Oct 19 - 22)

This afternoon's building groundswell was generated by a strong polar low moving under us the past couple of days and we should see it peaking this evening before easing back from 2-3ft tomorrow morning.

Light N'ly winds will give into fresh E tending S/SE sea breezes so surf during the morning.

A small reinforcing pulse of SW swell is due Friday morning to 2ft, generated by a little trailing front that's forming south-west of us today.

It'll produce a slim fetch of W/SW gales and winds look best again through the morning with a light N/NW offshore ahead of gusty S/SE sea breezes.

Looking at the weekend, Saturday looks small to tiny along with strengthening E/NE winds as a low deepens to our west.

As we move into Sunday the low will start moving east, opening up our swell window to a fetch of strong S/SE winds, kicking up some localised windswell across the Arm.

The size and local winds are still a little uncertain due to the centre of the low moving right across the south of the state so check back here on Friday for one final look at this funky swell.

At this stage we may see variable morning winds Sunday with 2-3ft of S/SE swell, with choppy conditions into the afternoon, then easing surf with strong S/SW winds on Monday.

Longer term another deepening trough and low along with a polar front will push in mid-late week, bringing what looks to be some larger, but still onshore surf. More on this Friday.