What's Happened To Gabriel And Italo?
How the hell did Gabriel Medina and Italo Ferreira end up on the cut line?
A few days until the Margaret River Pro when the gullotine will come down, and both Italo Ferierra and Gabe Medina are perilously close to getting the chop. How the hell did that happen? It's worth a quick forensic analysis through the season's opening comps to try and understand this set of events and it's almost unbelievable potential outcome.
It's hard to imagine a worse, more inept start to the year than Medina's Pipe showing. Beaten in Round 1 by Callum Robson - who also now faces the chop - Medina managed second place and avoid the Elimination Round. In his Round of 32 heat against rookie Crosby Colapinto, held in tricky but perfectly OK 4-6 feet Pipe he looked flustered and way off the pace. He rode eight waves for a combined score of 2.73. The worst heat he has ever surfed at Pipe, by far. The lowlight was Medina trying to thread a little nugget under priority, screwing up an open exit and seeing Crosby on the heat-winning wave behind. On execution, on strategy, wave selection, positioning, every possible metric you can imagine, it was a terrible flub from Medina.
Italo's exit was in the same round, but with no particularly bad odour associated to it. Just beaten by a rampaging Jordy Smith who had a better back-up score.
There was zero controversy about either loss, apart from the fact 82% of respondents had picked Medina to beat the rookie.
Gabe all at sea at Pipeline (WSL/Bielmann)
Onto Sunset. Medina followed Pipe with a Round 1 shocker to end up in last place against Eli Hanneman and Matty McGillvray, forcing him into the Round 2 elimination death pit. No dramas against Sammy Pupo and Keanu Asing in super shifty 6-8 feet Sunset. He cooly picked two-turn waves and nailed an end turn for a solid win. It looked like the solid Medina was back.
Round of 32 against Seth Moniz in stormy, raggedy 10 feet Sunset. 79% of fan respondents thought the physicality and skill advantage of Medina would get it done. Once again, he had a shocker - eight waves ridden for a measly 8.33 heat total. The crux of the loss came down to a ride with nine minutes remaining and Gabe needing a low 5. Thats two turns of any description for Medina, on any day of the week. He got a whitewater roll-in and sliced a clean, slashing backhand hook - which was half the score itself, so any kind of second turn and he had it. He entered the Inside Bowl and delayed the ascent to the lip until it was so late he went upside down across the lip. It detonated and exploded him on the flat.
Medina's surfing has always been defined by risk, but in this instance it cost him the heat and granted him a consecutive second-last place finish.
At Sunset, flashes of brilliance weren't enough for Medina and he was bundled out in 17th place (WSL/Bielmann)
Again, Italo looked less brittle, less fragile. His backhand led to solid wins over Crosby Colapinto in the Round of 32 and Fred Morais in the Round of 16 before eventual winner Jack Robinson destroyed him with a 17-point heat total.
Enter Portugal where both Medina and Italo have consistently lodged podium finishes. A scrappy forecast with shifting peaks typically favours the busy approach of both. Coming off an almost faultless performance at the ISA games, where he earned himself an Olympic slot, Medina was the form surfer of the event. Italo was only a half-beat behind. Both lodged multiple excellent rides, Italo against Matty McGillvray, Medina against Miggy Pupo, Jack Robinson, and Leo Fioravanti.
For the first time this season we also saw a familiar figure standing on the beach for Gabe's heats. Step-dad Charlie, who helped create the most formidable and ruthless competitor since Kelly Slater.
With Charlie back on the scene, Gabe was now caught between contradictory impulses. On the one hand, coach Andy King who claimed Gabe's motivation was now tied to "the inspiration of art”, while on the other Charlie Medina, who coached Gabe into such tactics as ruthlessly burning Caio Ibelli during the Pipe Masters to prevent him from scoring. Medina wore a controversial Semi-Final loss to Griffin Colapinto without comment, but we can infer from the subsequent meltdown at Bells that he did not wear it lightly.
Nonetheless, it was a huge return to form for Medina, with Italo out in the Round of 16 to Ethan Ewing.
It seems a simple statement of fact, backed up by the numbers, to say Medina was the best surfer in the water on Day 1 at Bells in 6 foot plus surf at the Bowl. A typical Medina response to the close loss in Portugal. 93% of fans expected him to win his Round of 32 clash against rookie Cole Houshmand in glassy 3 foot surf at Winkipop. That's about the closest thing you'll find to a sure bet in sport. If Gabe loses early at Margs and fails the cut, debate will rage between Medina fans and others as to whether the close loss was the result of what Gabe called “the worst judging I have ever seen” or a catastrophic failure from Medina himself with respect to decision-making and tactics in the final minutes of the heat.
Despite currently being ranked 20th on the CT, Brazilian journalist Julio Adler says Gabriel is "surfing better than anyone". His Day 1 performance at Bells made it hard to argue against (WSL/Sloane)
There's no such 'luxury' available for Italo. Simply outsurfed in small, running rights by Rio Waida who spent chunks of the off-season on the Gold Coast surfing waves of similar ilk.
The best competition surfer of his generation and his heir apparent will likely surf with enough desperation at Main Break to avoid the cut. A day at the Box for the Round of 32 would be road spikes for that aspiration, opening up the field in unpredictable ways and favouring small-statured natural-foot chargers like Eli Hanneman and Seth Moniz who cannot compete on turns at Main Break.
A combination of small mistakes, grand errors in judgement, meeting form surfers early in the draw, and controversial judging, explains the early season misfortunes of Gabriel and Italo.
We need a larger hypothesis for the greater failure of the Brazilian Storm. As of now, not a single Brazilian is in the top 5, nor top 10, not even in the top 15.
The only theory I have is that the stunning withdrawal of back to back World Champion Filipe Toledo has caused a complete collapse in the group structure and confidence of the Brazilian contingent.
// STEVE SHEARER
Comments
If your talking about the top 30 (for example )
surfers in the world, your splinting hairs. Combined with for the most part this Wsl season,shit waves and subjective judgeing . Anything can happen.
While they all have to surf the same waves, it must be pretty hard to get fired up for shit waves especially if your been on the tour awhile.
I think it's the waves too. Italo got that bomb when they didn't even run pipe. What other competitors did?
Early onset manopause brought on by dodgy chemicals used in Brazilian chest waxing products
Ha, ha just when I thought you were busy bending bananas you pull that out.
hahhahahaa
The judging has slightly changed ( for the better I think ). When Italo or Gabe were behind in heats they would throw Hail Mary airs until they eventually stuck one and got the score.People called this progression, but it was just like an air show from 10 years earlier and all the non-makes were getting repetitive and boring ( again, in my opinion).Maybe the WSL saw this and started to score airs a little lower. Other board sports like Snowboarding and Skateboarding get two runs at getting the score, surfing was allowing a competitor as many attempts they could fit in 30 minutes . Not great viewing.
Yep
Yep because I thought Gabe had won his Bells heat with that air, but I don't think it even factored into his top two waves in the end
Agree…airs are just ho hum now. Nothing progressive about them, in fact they take away from the beauty of a well surfed wave.
I don't mind a huge punt, but everyone can pull off the little ones but days
I agree that something's changed in the judging, Macca.
While chatting to Julio Adler about the other article he said this (hopefully he doesn't mind me posting it here):
"We've had a change in serious judging. Using Shearer's Pritamo interview as a reference, there's a time of adaptation until the system makes sense to everyone."
"The arrival of a new Head Judge really messes with the classification system and the drama is heightened by the fact that this new boss is Brazilian."
Is the head judge now Brazilian? That must piss them off even more
Yes, he is Brazilian.
Good point...im glad that 9 or 10 for one air days seem to be done.
So true
One manoeuvre airs should be banned
Deffo David 24.
I think that trend started with Pritamo's head judging.
I think it started before that, maybe the time where Italo beat Andino at DBar?. Italo just attempted Hail Mary's until he stuck a couple. The WSL had to be looking at that , thinking is this the way they want the sport to go in the future? The scale was set last year when Mendina skipped a section in the pool to gain speed for an air and was beaten by EE who linked the whole wave (leaving Mendina incredulous). Mendina has the turns, especially on his backhand and easily the ability to win the title again. Italo , maybe not now airs aren't scored so highly.
Maybe there's something wrong with the format, then? I mean in regards to unlimited waves allowed to be ridden but only two count. What if, for instance, you could ride as many as you wanted, but you were scored on half of the waves ridden (of course then divided by number of waves)?
It would force the surfers to make waves count, but still allow for some freedom in wave selection. Just an idea off the top of my head.
Format has always been stuffed surfing is not like other sports. Chuck 12 in a heat best three waves in 2 hours in good surf and then a 6 man final. 24 tour surfers and 12 local wildcards each event. Done and we can watch them pick the line up from each other just like regular surfers
How's Gabe's bottom turn at Bells, very Occy.
What I was thinking. People
lord Occy and bag Gabe for his style, but looks pretty similar there to me
Maybe in that one back hand bottom turn, absolutely nothing else. Have you seen Occy rocking the poo-man? Farrrk No!
Agree. One still shot, as good as it looks, doesn’t show flow. That’s where his style is naf. Not as bad as Italo’s pumpy pumpy flicks though. Thats just plain ugly
Not the top turns though
Yes thanks for running that photo again, how's the positioning on that ...
Storm better get busy
Maybe Medina having a personality reboot is as unsettling for the Brazilian camp as Toledo withdrawing from the tour this year. The laser focus, win at all costs, title winning Gabe was an unstoppable force at times and talisman for the Brazilian storm. Easy going Gabe not so much. The mixed messaging from his camp with the Jekyll and Hyde approach of Andy and Charlie can't be doing much for the Brazilian surfers either, they have lost a leader and point of reference, two with Toledo gone.
back when the title was decided on accruals (point totals), Medina would often have a shocker at the beginning but then halfway through just turn and start all guns blazing... maybe this format does not suit his approach of gaining momentum through the year??
No it’s why the cut ultimately sucks. Is we all know who the beat surfers are but it takes more than a few events to sort it out. We wouldn’t be having this convo if some of the better surfers had a shocker and came off tour. Imagine if JJF had a shocker below cut or Robbo we would all know the tours stuffed. Same with Gabe and Italo we know they are all rounded talent.
Hate to say I told you so, but I did call Italo dropping off and you all howled me down, haha. Didn't imagine Gabe would as well, and I can't see anyone wining Margs with air-three-sixty to claim combos...the boys are in trouble. What's disturbing though are the online death threats aimed at the WSL for when they get to Rio. Fucking idiots
Storm in a teacup I reckon. My money is they both get through.
……….not too phased if they don’t either
It must do the surfers head in when they change the judging criteria. I don't mind them not scoring airs as generously (although I still think it's a real skill). A bit like studying to get a degree and then no one recognises your qualification.
It’s a total skill almost every surfer of middle skills can dig a turn but I have never and will never be able to fly like Gabe or Italo. I doubt EE will either….
Barrels too are achievable, but try as I might I don't think I'll ever do an air. When I go for one I'm pretty sure it must look like I'm having a stroke on the end section.
But that’s progression. Over time the judges are going to score some aspects more highly than others. That’s where coaches can be helpful in analysing what the judges are looking for in each location. It’s the opposite of progression just sticking what you have always done and expecting you will get the same high scores.
Ok, we should stop calling crazy airs "progression". This doesn't make them less difficult to execute, though. If they were easy, why didn't every CT surfer do them to win heats like JJF, GM, IF, FT and even JW have done? (back when airs were better scored)
Exactly my point because there are some who can’t.
It’s been that way for Kelly for such a long time and now for Jjf Gabe etc they a really end up getting scored against their own talent not the guy next to them.
Being difficult =/= being good.
Riding a wave standing on your head is difficult, but does not warrant a good score.
I think the judging is finally starting to move towards only scoring good airs highly, after a period of over-scoring most airs.
Good is subjective. That is the obvious thing that keeps all of us writing on these pages.
According to the current rules, this is what is being judged to define good (https://www.worldsurfleague.com/pages/rules-and-regulations):
- Commitment and degree of difficulty
- Innovative and progressive maneuvers
- Combination of major maneuvers
- Variety of maneuvers
- Speed, power and flow
*difficulty is there. Crazy airs are not necessarily more difficult than JJF's WA carves which only he can do, but still difficult. JJF is the only one that can do them, but then it slowly becomes "slightly repetitive" and slowly and subtly becomes slightly less rewarded, even though it is incredibly difficult. Why didn't all surfers do those carves to turn the heats? Because they can't. Same with some of the airs. If they were overscoring, why didn't all surfers do it? Because they can't.
With all that being said, I agree with you and I am happy that the "normal" airs are less valuable.
Anyway, interesting (and endless) discussions! I guess we should just all go and watch Machado videos and just be happy, haha...
Sure good can be subjective, but there are aspects that are objective.
In regards to airs, higher is objectively better than lower. Clean landings are objectively better than bogged landings.
Commitment, innovation and progression applies to the sections an air is done on (ie early on the wave, not off a fat shoulder), and how it is linked to the rest of the ride.
Pumping down the line, burning sections to launch off the closeout misses on all these criteria, regardless of how 'good' the actual air is.
Invariably semis and finals held afternoon on finals day…good chance it’s on shore by then and their success on getting big scores on one air might explain some past results
Good points all. I've always thought Gabby and Italo have done it individually, and have been victims of circumstance and tweaking of the judging scale.
The rest of the "storm" really are a collective that gain momentum through aspiring towards the levels Fil performs at, and more recently also Joao. Both those guys missing seems to be having an effect too.
I’m pretty surprised yago is not doing better, thought he had a breakout year last year. Along with Felipe missing I’m sure Joao injury had an impact too.
I was always taught in judging you reward the surfer who takes a big risk on their first manourve.
If they go for an air or big turn first up and pull it off its scores way higher than the surfer who waits until the end closeout or shorey.
Pumping down the line avoiding the pocket and pulling an air on the close out should never have been allowed to score as high as it was in the past.
The criteria states critical moves in the critical sections score high.
Pumping to the closeout should never score above a 3 or 4.
Sometning also needs to be done about progression on your backhand.
Wayne Lynch and Occy were more vertical back in the day.
They were hitting the Lip at Noon and 1 pm. ( check Lynch in a Day in the life and Occy's Skins win clips.
The American 2% er who just Won Bells was hitting the Lip at 11 am.
Backhand surfing needs more variety
with manourves off the pocket lip from roundhouse cutties explored and encouraged.
Add some gravy to the Meat and Potatoes.
100% !!!
WL & Occy formative surfing on single fins. Check Col Smith (Narrabeen) and Cheyne too - beyond vertical approach, very radical.
I had a couple of sessions out at Main Break over the last week and let me tell you reports of Gabe and Italos imminent death are greatly exaggerated.
Only way they might die is if Connor, Igarashi, and Leo F form an axis of evil and take them out on the stairs.
Well within their rights to if you ask me. Both Italo but especially Gabe not doing a whole lot of sharing.
Had the privilege of being almost run over by Italo. I'm not kidding, it was the sickest though, He did these two turns on a left and I think he surprised himself. Ive seen John Butler play oceans and I've seen Italo surf a left at Main Break.
Wonder if I'll ever see something done as well again to be quite honest.
I've got my picks pretty well lined up for this one.
"I've got my picks pretty well lined up for this one."
Thanks for the hot tip(s), Leroy.
Stu.
For the record my tips and picks have been pretty bang on. (when I've tipped). Punters and readers of the forum will recall I went on a mad tear at Tahiti during the year of the Pig. Also if you go back through the archives before Sunset this year I did in fact pick Robbo and with a slightly scatter gun approach I picked Molly also. (I had about four goes at it on the woman's side from memory, I think I had it down to Molly, Tyler, maybe I thought Carrissa would have probably taken it out had she competed plus I added a couple of others - which is half the field and cheating a bit, perhaps it doesn't count. Ha! :) ).
Anyway I think you are trying to goad the inside word out of me here Stu and as an egomaniac and clairvoyant I will oblige and attempt to deliver my picks with the usual savage wit and to this point dead eyed accuracy.
On the Mens side it's a congested field and a nightmare to pick. Honestly, they are all ripping. I didn't see John John but would be interested to hear if his turns are still a cut above the rest. Everyone's turns seem crisp and fast now. Also everyone is independently pretty brilliant in their own regard.
Take Caio Ibelli (crap spell) as an example. If you watch Caio surf a wave its like watching a Mac truck hauling arse in fourth gear banging out powerful turns and doing some seriously quick travel down the line. No necessarily brilliant turns but there is an impact in terms of watching the whole wave seamlessly stitched together. I wonder if that translates on the screen. But anywho, you look at a wave of his and think oh that's a 7 or an 8 depending on the scale for sure.
Next wave is one of Italos and he bangs out 4 turns with great variation and brilliant execution. The turns are more distinct, he displaces more water than Aussie fireman, but the wave is slightly smaller and again you think yeah a 7 or an 8.
But it's not the same 7 or 8 as Caios if you catch my drift. This effect is totally exacerbated watching live.
Moral of the story- don't be a judge kids. People will just criticize criticize criticize. You'd be doomed to fuck it up everytime.
But oh yeah my picks.
1. Watched dune 2, takeaway-
Ciao is the Kelly killer. Haven't even seen the draw, but it's in my head now. Ciao is the Kelly killer. Basically Ciao to kill Kelly.
2. Outperform Mens.
Leo the lion- will make the cut.
Ciao Ibelli- watch for the bang bang on the end section and a high placing.
Rhino the Rhinoceros.
If he can get his head shaking and his tail wagging his backhand is sublime.
Conor O Genki O Leary.
A healthy finish. Throw us a couple Nixon esq tricky Dicky peace signs if you win this thing and that hug you gave to Medina in the lineup was a head fuck please.
One of the locals to give it a nudge. -Could be Robbo to get his year back on track, his affinity with Sunset could just be his affinity with main break. Wilcox hopefully gets on a roll.
Woman's.
Outperform.
Tatiana. - her backhand works at Main break. She'll go close.
Tyler- Third time's a charm. I'm more backing the transformation than the performance. Hoping she finds it.
Isabella. -Dark horse- genuinely good seeming human being. Would have thrown down $10 (she has her name on stairs but would have been paying outsized odds I reckon). Unfortunately the whores at Ladbrokes and TAB won't take bets on the event winner at the start of the event anymore. This was a cash cow for Leroy, I had the technique of picking a genuine winning hope and scattering money on the bottom of the field knowing randomness, weather, luck, and a surfers ability to be on a roll are massive contributing factor in overall success.
The algorithm was rooted paying outsized odds on the bottom of the field but they figured it out and the market has been removed.
Christ Its not like Leroy wasn't giving the money back on the ponnies and dogs you greedy fucks. Let Leroy have his fun.
Back to the woman's.
For the win.
-Molly, Molly and Molly. Shes seriously putting the Michelle in man turn. Needs to convert her dominance into world titles by getting the jump on Simmers at Trestles now before Simmers begins probably a pretty dominant spell at the top.
Also
Kelly to wake in the middle of the night in a sweat and at least once discuss the A******* word with the Mrs, perhaps toss up whether to declare publicly for Biden and start chanting, 4 more years, 4 more years... Common babe- just till the hip comes right. Nah kidding he's done.. are they gonna have a party though?? Surely got to be a party.
For the win Medina. FFS.
Can't deny that ethic though.
While Medina surfed shit at Pipe, the surf was also shit. The winner of the heat got the only very good wave of the heat with about five minutes to go. The fact it took the winner 30 minutes to catch a wave shows how bad the surf was. As for Portugal, I doubt Medina would have complained about the loss. Personally, i thought Medina was the better surfer here but the other guy got the better waves, did more turns, this probably got the win. But the heat at Winki was bullshit. Not even sure why Freeride keeps validating this bullshit. Medina was a performance surfer surfing all around the lip. The other guy was a shoulder hacker. It was no contest. It was bullshit. WSL wants a USA champ crowned at Trestles. They appear to not care about Medina. As for Italo, yeah, his surfing has become boring. Both Medina & Italo appear to have mental weaknessness when it comes to relationship & women. Medina started the year with very glazed eyes. Italo seemed to decline with the loss of the Disney girl. In short, when Medina has shone this year, he has shown he remains the best & most exiting surfer on the tour. He remains the Alpha Male.
Ethan's the Alpha. Medinas been getting his pubes permed in between stealing every wave and his testosterones dropped as a result.
Right now he's like a scarred school kid who left his essay to the last minute and he's at the library trying to pull this shit outta the fire.
But yeah all shit talk aside he's the real article and will probably whip em good.
Also I probably shouldn't been in that line up, but I couldn't resist. This probably won't go down very well with the locals but maybe a two exclusive practice days and timeslots, with extra slots available for competitors with nuts and vag actutely on the block as it were.
Would be sad to see gabe drop off one of my fave surfers these days
Contests/sports decided by judging will always see opinions strongly divided. What's infuriating is when the Wozl so obviously plays favourites, and there's nothing the out-of-favour surfers can do.
Of course this changes too, so don't be too smug - your guys will be on the receiving end sooner or later.
Why don’t they add a crowd score for those watching online. I’m sure the Rio Cola semi would have been interesting. Also informs the Judges what the punters think
Seems everyone on tour has sharpened their axe.
It's not like the old days with a few excellent surfers.
Everyone is prepared, well formed.
With everything that goes in to winning a world title - fitness , judging criteria , motivation , wave quality , board design , etc etc , It is absolutely fucking astounding that Kelly has managed to win 11 of them !
No one will ever come close to this , he really is the GOAT .
A combination of factors - changes in the judging criteria to which many Brasileiros have not adjusted their approach -
Sheer overconfidence from previous success, expecting the system to adapt to them rather than the other way round.
Nothing wrong with their physical surfing - it's their mental attitude that needs to evolve.
Times change and all who wish to remain on Tour must adapt, or face the Mid-Year Cut.
great read steve - i absolutely love watching gabe surf, and besides jjf, he is the only one who's airs i can tolerate. he has shown brilliance this year but hasn't seemed to keep his usual ultra high consistency
am i right that he has said previously he is not a fan of margs??? anyway, i hope he smashes it out there and gives us something to jump off the couch for
You nailed it. It is no team spirit. They are all individuals. Amazing what the team spirit does for countries performances. Usa killing it because they have tight team spirit. Surging and individual but very much team sport.
Feel like gabes been off since his last world title.
Beating pip, may have actually effected him.
....probably not.
Feel he just woke up one day and really started hating his job.....like f this shit reality
It's a weird shift yet most people can change there jobs.
When you have big contracts, yet mentally your not there..... then what ?
Feel he is stuck, in limbo.
The public divorce, the split with the family, so many variables.
Could make a pretty entertaining documentary/ series.
I have been offline for a while. It's so nice to come back welcomed by articles like this and also
Craigs. I'm so grateful.
I think the turning point of everything for them was italo getting robbed blind at the tank.....i dont think it can be overstated. Gabs heats there and bells can be debated, italos loss in the finals cant. If it was an aussie who got cooked like that, there would still be an open thread here about it.
Also in that mindset, if aussies or seppos were landing 6ft corked air reverses and losing to brazos doing 2 backside window wipers and a lil closeout bonk, cunts would be melting down........
I think they are just over the wsl shit show
Gabs is stacked. Too much weights not enough speed work. Younger, more limber, lighter surfers have a slightest advantage in weak mushy waves.
They just got a bit too cocky for there one good , you can’t be on top of your game year in year out . Judging started getting bored with the same manoeuvres too maybe I dunno but those airs from Italo was just overused