There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know. -Donald Rumsfeld

With the chaff blown away in the stiff Southern Ocean breeze and the sweet/sour briny smell of seaweed in the nostrils we are now whittled down to the pointy end of this, at times, epic contest. It is high time we bought a surgeons eye and scalpel to the contenders. We will use the latest in scientific methods as well as more intuitive methods of investigation, so please, if psycho-spiritual mumbo-jumbo offends please adjust your dial now.

Still here? Good, lets get on with the break down.

Bells this morning offered an offshore, tricky, shifting line-up with a variety of wave types and speeds. Turn placement, timing and entry/exit angle were critical and few of the Round 4 surfers mastered it.

Joel's attack sent me into paroxysms of joy. At high speed, on rail, no-one looks as good on a surfboard. His destiny is now intertwined with the vicissitudes of the Bells Bowl. Parko tragics still harbour deep wounding from the 2006 final, when Slater did a number on him in perfect six foot Bells. Fatigue was the cause of that defeat. Parko's victory in Round 4 ensures a well-spaced run to the final, if the Gods are smiling tomorrow.

Slater's attack revealed equipment limitations, a tendency to slide the second half of the turn at max speed and leverage. That might be a winning strategy in junk but in overhead Bells Bowl it is fakery and ju-ju. We must speak with a common voice here fellow surf junkies: the correct Bells line requires the rail to be held through the turn. Judges will have clear distinctions during tomorrow's finals run.

Fanning's opener didn't score but it revealed with startling clarity his modus operandi. We refer to the high hook layback in the lip. At lower speeds and in the middle of the wave face this is a plebeian turn, but executed at speed in the lip, like Andy used to, it gives the surfer the imprimatur of total authority. Fanning unleashed it on his next wave, which was adjudged a ten by 3 of the judges. The three sane ones I might add. It was perfection, the best surfed wave this year on the ASP Tour.

What of Jordy? Bad timing, incorrect reads, frustrated body language, dazzling moments of brute force, last minute victories shrouded in controversy. We haven't seen Jordy on point this year. I asked him how his title campaign was travelling, considering the unemphatic victories. His terse reply, "Ask me come Hawaii."

These are the known knowns.

A quick scientific digression, as promised. Where does it come from, this thing called style. And lets make sure we are absolutely clear here. Despite the judging criteria we are looking at a contest of style. Deep in the brain lies the limbic system (stick with me here, this is uncharted territory for surf journalism). This limbic system is the most primitive part of the brain, responsible for translating emotions into memory. The strongest emotions are the ones activated by the pleasure centre (the nucleus accumbens, thanks for asking) and they become our strongest memories and muscle memory map.

For Parko, for Fanning: this ancient muscle/emotional memory map is tied to perfect golden light afternoons on pointbreaks, the board flowing down effortlessly with the trim line, the attack cutting deep into those trim lines.

We can still see the imprint of Sebastian Inlet in the surfing of Slater: the fully flared top turn carve to slide.

In Jadson: we see the relentless searching for speed and launchpads of the Brazilian beachbreaks. Adriano too, although he has worked mightily hard to adapt his surfing to the dominant paradigm.

Our point: this thing called style is deeply ingrained in the most primitive/unconscious parts of the brain. It is very resistant to change.

This is the unknown unknown.

What is the outlook for tomorrow sports fans?

Kelly already has a keeper result. He has identified Parko as the main threat. How did he do this? Via the mechanism of the web-cast when asked about his heat against Stu Kennedy he replied, "Parko has been having great heats, I've been having bad ones. I'd rather have the bad ones now and the good ones later."

The germ cell of this idea, is to incubate the mental pre-conditions whereby Parko might be thrown off rhythm and somewhere in the back of his mind will be that thought 'Fuck, I'm having my bad heat now'.

I'm sure this is all unconscious from Kelly. It's somewhere deep down in his limbic system tied in with the pleasure principle/sexual arousal centre. He has learnt power and manipulation on a grand and subtle scale and it will take something approaching a miracle for Parkinson or Fanning to resurrect hope for the rest of the tour on Easter Sunday.

PS: Your correspondent regrets he does not have a more comprehensive coverage of the womens surfing today. An uncontrollable urge to surf 3-5 foot oily Winkipop overcame him. He can report the following salient facts from direct observation. Steph Gilmore continues to struggle to regain the aura of a World Champ....she was soundly comboed by Sally Fitzgibbons the eventual winner. Sally has some stylistic glitches to overcome, but she laid rail in the steep sections and rode a wave of strong emotional support from the crowd to come home a convincing winner. It was entertaining to watch; as womens surfing will continue to be in the future.

The Outsider: Ladies and Gentleman, we are floating in space The Outsider: The Great Rock 'n Roll Swindle The Outsider: Show Me Your War Face Soldier The Outsider: Remembrance of Things Past The Outsider: Prologue

(Photos By Steve Arklay)