The rule of thumb for East Coast swell prediction is to not to put too much weight on swells forecast beyond four days. With the Tasman and Coral Seas being so dynamic, a movement of a low here or a shift of a fetch there can have big implications on local surf size and conditions.

There are, however, certain synoptic setups where we can make confident calls over a week out, even two, and the coming fortnight is one of these. Starting today, the East Coast is expected to be flushed with easterly swell and it's likely to extend into the beginning of March.

How can we be so certain when, as mentioned, the weather is usually so dynamic?

The answer lies in a semi-permanent area of high pressure establishing itself across the Tasman Sea and New Zealand. This is known as the sub-tropical ridge and shifts south through summer, opening up the Australian coast to easterly trade-winds which are usually positioned further north.

Add in a stalling MJO signal (increased tropical activity) in the region and we'll see persistent tropical instability squeezing the northern flank of transient highs, in turn producing an anchored easterly trade-wind fetch, with embedded bursts of stronger activity.

Coming synoptic setup with high pressure squeezed by low pressure depressions to the north

This is the outlook for the coming fortnight and beyond, with an elongated fetch of stationary trade-winds expected to setup from the Coral Sea, across New Zealand into the Pacific Ocean.

With travel times from the backside of the fetch (south-west of Tahiti) being four-to-five days and the activity expected to be maintained until at least the final days of February, we can expect the coming run of easterly swell to run over three weeks, making it all the way to March.

The way these swells usually play out is with relatively consistent delivery of moderate-sized, mid-period swell the whole time, ebbing and pulsing in size and period with each additional burst of tropical activity.

Under these scenarios, bagging surf becomes a marathon not a sprint, and those who can keep a lid on the froth and pace themselves throughout the event, will be best placed to win.

Gold Coast forecast for the coming ten days

Also, owing to coastline orientation, Southern NSW will receive less energy compared to south-east Queensland and northern NSW. North-east magnets only for anywhere south of Newcastle.

As always, you can keep updated with the exact timings of each swell pulse and the local winds in the tri-weekly Forecaster Notes.