La Niña Hiding In The Depths
Is it too early to be talking about La Niña?
It’s probably the last thing those suffering relentless onshore winds and poor surf in Victoria and South Australia want to hear, while it’s probably no surprise to the recently flooded areas on the East Coast right now.
As discussed last year, not all El Niño’s are hot and dry, and the current event was a perfect example of this. Most El Niños are though, with the warm water signature in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean flanked by cold water anomalies which hug the Australian region, leading to a moisture deficit in the atmosphere.
This wasn’t the case for our most recent El Niño, with significant pools of warmer than normal water developing in the western Pacific Ocean, Coral Sea, Tasman Sea and directly off the northwest of Australia. The Southern Oscillation Index also shows the lack of correlation between the Pacific and our country with it only hitting the -7 El Niño threshold during spring before weakening back to near neutral into the end of the year.
The heating has continued during the summer with the country now almost fully surrounded by warmer than normal water, apart from cold upwelling along the South Australian coast and off the Pilbara in Western Australia.
Current Sea Surface Temperature anomalies (difference from normal), with significant warming noted in most ocean basins (NOAA)
This warm water is loading the atmosphere with moisture, which is brought ashore from the east by the southward moving sub-tropical high. All through December we’ve seen the sub-tropical high further south than normal, known as a positive Southern Annular Mode, and this has exacerbated things bringing torrential downpours to the east while at the same time bringing relentless south-east winds to Victoria and South Australia.
But what does this have to do with La Niña?
Firstly, it’s worth noting that La Niña’s very often follow strong El Niño years.
The reason lies in the oceanic dynamics that feed and strengthen El Niño events, that being strong westerly wind bursts in the western Pacific Ocean in response to rising air above the warm pool to the east.
During the summer peak of El Niño these westerly winds actually start to shift southward away from the equator, towards the developing South Pacific Convergence Zone. This is the zone where the south-east trades meet the easterly trades, with it shifting south during the peak of summer and early autumn.
This means the driver for the pile up of warm water (westerly wind bursts) are shifted away from the equator, allowing easterly trade-winds to kick back in.
With all that warm water piled up to the east, the sea level is higher than surrounding waters and this creates a transport of the warm water away from the equator, to the north, south and even west as it tries to balance itself back out again.
All things being equal the flow of warm water away from the equator induces the upwelling of cooler, sub-surface water and the rapid breakdown of the El Niño. If the cold pool is significant enough we see a quick transition from an El Niño state to La Niña the following year.
Will we see this play out this year? The evidence is already hiding at depth below the Pacific Ocean. A significant pool of cooler than normal sub-surface water is developing in the western Pacific Ocean, with it forecast to travel east over the coming months, surfacing this coming winter (diagrams below).
The first diagram can be pictured as a cross-section below the Pacific Ocean, running from west to east. The ocean surface is at 0m, going down to 300m deep. Africa is the grey shade far left, Australia just to the left of 120E, and South America to the right.
Sub-surface cold pool traversing the Pacific Ocean over the coming months (forecast), surfacing through May/June (NOAA)
Top-down view of the forecast Sea Surface Temperature anomalies for June 2024 (NOAA)
The long range wind anomaly charts across the equator also show a halt to the westerly wind bursts and intensification of easterly trade-winds over the coming month, spelling the end of the current El Niño.
With the western Pacific also being primed with much warmer than normal water than usually seen through a typical El Niño, this further bolsters the confidence of a quick swing to the La Niña state during the coming winter.
As always we’ll continue to monitor developments over the coming week and months and provide running updates, along with more detail on how each regions surf season looks to evolve.
Comments
Interesting Craigos, thanks. We usually think there's a strict patter of a couple of years of Ninyo and a couple of Ninya, but I guess it's not that straightforward.
Quick Vicco question please: Even if there is La Ninya, would a strongly negative SAM mean that it wouldn't impact us much in terms of rain and those shitty cool winds we've been having?
Yeah there's no major set pattern to the back and forth but La Niña's though they do cycle back and forth periodically.
Here's the last 30 years..
That'd be correct regarding your second question, though + SAMs are the norm through La Niña events.
Bugger!
Cheers mate.
Interesting chart, with 15/16 being the most recent great surf years here. June 2016 being absolutely all time. Wonder if the chart for 24 will dip the same and be a great winter again.
Fark all the way off.
Vicco surfer almost ready to unsubscribe here.
The last few La Niña's provided plenty of fun options targeted more towards the beaches in autumn and winter. We'll have a clearer idea in the coming months.
Good read. Big ecl for autumn slash winter brewing me thinks……….pasha bulka type ecl on the cards Craig? Without the damage
Too hard to say but if that warm water in the Tasman hangs around, the ingredients will be there.
Oh no
Too early for more El nina floods up here.
Is it too early to be talking about La Niña?
Not at all, it's like she's been here all year but dressed as a boy...
Haha I’ll pay that!
See Mary at reception for your meat tray on the way out.
Haha.
agree seems to be a bit of cross dressing here
Must be a Trans Oceanic thing….Kids these days!!
Yeah agree…It feels like La Niña left the room but dropped her guts on the way out and shut the door behind her, leaving a lingering memory of her presence…. More La Niña?? Surely not ??
It was a lousy impersonation, more La than El
Any insight on how this would impact WA swells? I made the move from the East coast a year ago and have been sorely disappointed so far, 4 months since I've had a wave overhead. I also but it's been a shocker for seabreezes combined with any kind of swell.
SW WA?
You’ll get a summer Seabreeze in any ENSO result down there.
Which part Sam? Offshore reefs will block much of the metro to midwest swell so overhead just won't happen too much in summer (there are gaps in these reefs in places). I'd think you'd get overhead beachies and reefs down south with a bit of regularity, even if not too far overhead over summer between the bigger pulses.
NE to SE mornings with sea breeze which comes in like an unfurling curtain down the coast (eg earlier in Geraldton, later at Margs). Maybe a bit of sheet glass as the gusty offshore backs off just before the onshore at times.
But friends over west have been saying it's been a long run with not too much at all metro, with a lot more south in the swell direction, and that this has been a theme of recent years. Also the run of extreme easterlies blowing over SW WA has been unnaturally strong, blowing swell toward South Africa on one occasion!
Sorry should have said, I'm midwest in Geraldton mainly with eyes on up north for windsurfing. Like you say heaps of South in a lot of the swells that get here and those big highs just keeping everything on a west-east track waaay too far south to send anything useful up this way.
Ah - familiar ground. Are you getting the easterlies my mates are, or is there more of a constant southerly drift this year?
A certain rivermouth gave us good waves when over last year for Xmas. 4wd out of town south or north has spots... Closer, does Glennies have any banks? And what about that explosively breaking spot that loves a southerly? Not enough swell for it?
When it gets tiny I've been known to break out a longboard at backers, that place has it's best shape on the tiniest days lol
Not quite how it’s been portrayed by surf media over the years is it?
They say information is power, but as an SA surfer I feel powerless after that. It's dire down here and the surf community is on edge. Tomorrow down south will be pandemonium at waits and parsons and it will only be 2-3ft. Meanwhile, the summer gutter (never spoken about in the report but everyone knows its there, and its bad) has killed Goolwa to Middleton unless the swell is solid. And when it's solid, it's howling onshore. Given recent events, most sane people are too spooked to go to Yorkes or the West Coast at the moment. To top it off, the wave pool companies are dragging their heels in setting up here. They would be shocked by the number of annual memberships they would get if only they'd hurry up and open a fkn pool! Please give us some good news soon Craig!
I feel ya It's been so bad it hasn't even been worth going out just to get wet.
Actually I'd say the last few years of summers has had SA surfers who live close to Adelaide in a rut.
The last good proper year we had was 2018. On Sunday at Parsons, there were 100 out. Two of my mates went. There were several collisions. They reported it was starting to get pretty...tense. Glad I didn't bother.
I don't get why Adelaide wasn't the first capital to get a pool as there is clearly pent- up demand.
Because part of the deal relies on the state government...imagine them trying to do something progressive. They can't even run a health system (libs or labor).
Is the warm water of the east coast here to stay due to climate change or is it just an anomaly over the past la niña/el niño cycle? Do you predict apocalyptic flooding for the northern Rivers again? There was lots of hype over the la niñas for the east coast but I found the constant easterly swell would fuck any break that relied on sand.
Also, RIP Victorian surfers. Having personally experienced what you guys were whinging about all through la niña, I wouldn't wish those weeks(months?!) of onshores on any surfer.
It looks that way.
Here's the SST trend for the southern NSW region for the last 30 years..
And the Sydney to Hobart region..
What you can deduce from this is a further southward intrusion of the East Australian Current, which has been proven by the arrival of tropical species further south than they have been recorded before.
This one isn't as bad as I remember the last 3 Nina summers, that was walk the dog beach kind of SE grim.
Nah VJ this summer has been the worst of all time, genuinely nothing worse than the brutal SE howling gales that are 5-6 days out of 7. This is easily the least I’ve surfed over summer in years
Yeah but you get that one day haha
I seem to remember 2 weeks straight SE in 21 or 22??
I remember that as well VJ.
however, this is as grim as it has been. was down the SC this morning at 7am and couldn't believe the strength of the onshore wind that early, as opposed to about 10km north
What does the La Niña mean for south pacific sites like Fiji Samoa Tonga Craig ?
"With all that warm water piled up to the east, the sea level is higher than surrounding waters and this creates a transport of the warm water away from the equator, to the north, south and even west as it tries to balance itself back out again."
Fascinating science!
The warm water anomaly off the east coast was there earlier in 2023 winter /spring as well though wasn’t it Craig? When it was well and truly El Niño, on the NSW North Coast, with record low rainfall for the year to date in October and bushfires going nuts.
Presumably the warm water off the east coast didn’t impact the winter/spring weather patterns of cold fronts coming across from the west, but then the change in November to the sub tropical weather patterns which have been beefed up by that warm water anomaly off the coast.
Crazy how quickly the system is flicking from one extreme to another in the last few years.
Was actually on the cool side through June/July and then warmed up into August.
We did see the influence of the + IOD through September with it being the hottest and driest on record for a lot of areas, then everything just stared suddenly warming. A tricky one.
Some stats from the BOM..
"Sep 2023 was driest Sep on record & 2nd driest any-month on record for Aus (124 years of record)
Oct 2023 was 5th driest Oct on record for Aus
Aug-Oct 2023 driest Aug-Oct on record & driest any 3-month period on record"
Here's July 1st last year..
And August 1st..
September was sunny and great waves nearly the whole month on the East, and it is traditionally one of the wettest months of the year,
Where are you Memla? September is typically lowest rainfall month for North Coast NSW.
East of Melbourne here we call east and west coasts of Melbourne not OZ.
Great read . I have to say I need to re-read some of the statements . Not because of your writing Craig . More the complex nature of the topic . Wouldn't want to be a weatherman at the moment . Its fuelling
climate change denialists .
I see not enough panic and many new V8 landcruisers. Glue yourself to something before it’s too late!
The new Cruisers are V6 and (gasp) a 4cylinder in the 70 series - see, they are saving the planet lol
Really interesting......blows my mind how farmers and producers rely on the BOM forecasts yet surf climate die hards are far more accurate in their predictions...Looking like the Eastern seaboard will light up soon as the holiday season ends...just like it used to.
Insightful article Craig - seems to me you may have touched on a clue as to why so many sharks attacks here this year - the cold water upwelling along SA coast.
How frequent are these upwellings?
I’m just an old grey mariner now surfed SA 50+ years and probably dodery but my tinkering (and I could have my numbers wrong) shows an interesting correlation
Fatal shark attack years
2023, 2021, 2014, 2011, 2004, 2002, 2000, 1998
Strong El Niño years
2023, 2015, 2010, 2002, 1998
2023/24 - La Nina lite
Three words....Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Similar to what I mentioned back in April last year, PDO looks to have played a part in buffering Aus from El Niño as well..
https://www.swellnet.com/comment/890012#comment-890012
So the important question; is this the new normal?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-08/victoria-weather-flood-warning/10...
Vic getting QLD style humidity, rainfall, and summer flooding
Hey Craig - is this for real?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-07/wet-el-nino-weather-pattern-expla...
The ABC meteorologist does a great job explaining El Nino and the +IOD, especially linking them to winds.
Edit: it's from 3 months ago, didn't pan out like that at all...
Yeah, old video. They shouldn't be sharing that.
It started out hot from around July/August with bushfires in Queensland and into Northern NSW, through to mid November, along with exceptionally high, if not record temperatures.
But things changed rapidly around late November and since Cyclone Jasper in mid December, it has been unusually wet all along the eastern coastline.
So what changed to force the shift from hot and dry to outrageously wet??
Bushfire Report from Wiki:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023%E2%80%9324_Australian_bushfire_season
The months of Aug/Sep/Oct were very dry across much of NSW. Lots of significant pre-season bushfires throughout this period.
Ever since early Nov things have changed dramatically. Doesn't look like the pattern will budge for a while yet either.
A strong, persistent + SAM event, shifted the sub-tropical high to the south which then drives onshore east winds and moisture into the coast.
With warmer than normal waters surrounding the country, excess moisture has been seen.
Question is, what drove the + SAM? Was it warmer water to the north creating lower pressure, hence pushing the highs further south. Will have a dig.
"Question is, what drove the + SAM? Was it warmer water to the north creating lower pressure, hence pushing the highs further south. Will have a dig."
That's my query as well.
Looks as though something flipped dramatically in early December and the effects were almost instantaneous.
The unfortunate consequence of all this is the BOM haters are coming out in droves.
I would hope the BOM come out with an explanation, not that it would shut them up!
I am not a meteorologist by any stretch but I am an avid follower of all sorts of things that relate to the weather (can thank my love for the ocean and my lawn for this) but from what I have seen, the positive SAM event has been triggered by a strong polar vortex. The polar vortex was also enhanced by the tonga volcano eruption which deposited a lot of moisture into the upper atmosphere.
They are also saying that the effects from this eruption can last for up to a decade so it's going to be an interesting few years weather wise that's for sure. I am a little concerned about La Nina later this year as if this positive SAM event continues for the remainder of summer then the east coast will have little reprieve from the rain which can then spell all sorts of problems!
Yep, def a factor as well, though the PV breaks down rapidly into the end of spring/summer, so wasn't an influence when things switched..
So many drivers and connections.
SAMed if you do ...
Interesting regarding the PV! Wonder if there are any delays associated with the PV and what it does with the atmosphere etc.
Whilst I do love the wetter phase, I do not like the constant barrage of onshore winds that we get on the GC. We have had the odd day here and there but the last few winters up here have been one to forget which I put down to the La Nina phase. Not sure if this holds any merit but whilst we did get some swell from the eastern quadrant, the winds never seemed to play ball.
I am sure it has been pumping on the points but as a lid rider, I much prefer the setups that require some form of a westerly wind ;)
Be careful lamenting the last few years of Gold Coast surf, lest you attract the ire of anyone in the southern states.
It wasn’t all bad.
Winter 2021 was good down here with minimal crowds as Melbourne was locked out of the Surf Coast.
Winter 2023 absolutely pumped here too.
Tough times in between for sure, and in grovel mode now too
The initial shift was late Oct into Nov (seen on the graph above)
Last weekend of Oct, first weekend of Nov we had over 200mm combined rainfall.
That transformed it from very dry bushfire prone habitat to lush green again.
That's what put out the Byron fire! It'd been going for almost three weeks at that stage and was in the peat, so needed a flooding event.
Off topic, I’ve noticed the banks have returned to some beach’s on the central coast (nsw) since we’ve been getting those small ne wind swells…… all we need is a swell over 2 and half foot and some light winds and it’ll be half decent…..the upside of the positive SAM. Ha
Craig is brave enough to go next level & earn his weather god stripes...yew!
Naturally mentoring his devotees to have a crack at a brain wave.
tbb is foolish enough to venture into uncharted waters.
Southern Aurora offset Ovation Theory
tbb is also in awe of the endless 'record' pooling of gargantuan East Oz climate manifestations.
If tbb's theory is correct then Biblical Weather will smash Oz East Coast in 2024 toward Solar Maxim.
Solar Flares offsetting Southern Aurora Ovation heating the sea & generating lightning > rain > floods.
tbb tracked his theory from the mud back up the rays to the sun.
Backpedalling, working in reverse....tbb's crackpot theory can explain all anomaly at once.
Of course tbb is no expert, but like the crew, a very keen student of swellnet weather godz.
Solar Cycle 25 is hittin' next level & Solar Flares ramp weather in their own right.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_25#/media/File:Solar_Cycle_25_...
However!
Theory centres around s/e Coast Oz battering specifically...so we need a kicker & we got that alright!
Yes...we're focusing on Solar flares but more so the devastating impact of the offset South Pole Aurora.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast
Please examine in detail the NOAA Space Weather AURORA 30min Forecast
Highlights...
* Southern Ovation is evenly highly powered & slamming Oz s/e coast for longer duration per cycle.
* Watch Oz (s/e) Coast Coastlines getting smashed for ( 85% of a Peak Solar Flare cycle )
* Due to radically offset Ovation the swinging Solar flares impact up to 50* latitude for 85% peak cycle!
* We see the whole Southern Oceans & collective East (sun) facing coastlines getting roasted alive.
Compare that to North Pole Canada mainland flares @ 85* latitude for a sporadic 10% of peak cycle )
Lame + Dead Lame...so bloody boring...tiny spurt from a confined polar circle flare is not worth measuring
Oz is Offset by South America now being starved of Aurora @ distant 85* latitude for 15% peak cycle
It's also very much dead & kept in the dark at night & Oceans are Cold...again floundering & lame.
Pretty much none in Europe / Americas / Asia could give a fuck about record Oz Solar Flare Devastation.
S/E Oz wildly ramped and vivid Ovation is all the rage & is lighting up our Blue Planet!
So not the power of the sun but the Southern Pole's bastardized anomaly upon Oz.
What does this impact & how...
Please refer to Craig's thoughtful share of Ocean Temp tidings.
Put yer surfer's caps on...offset Oz Aurora swing arm direction & exacting relation to Ocean Temp.
Note where Solar Flare Cycle collides with s/e Sunny Coastlines > intensifying these Hottest Spots.
This natural rotation in turn drives excess heat up our eastern Sun facing Coastlines.
Now notice the exact shadowed position of west facing SA pocket of pooled cold water..
See how it sits further up the already record stretched Ovation latitude...but...
See also how The Bight shields this cold pocket from natural Ovation swing direction. (2x Protected)
Much like how whales seek protected curled hook sounds to escape noise to en masse > beach.
Compare that to record far Aurora distant bitterly cold opposite South American waters...it's dead as!
Pause!
Giant rotisserie roasting s/e Oz ocean patch is only part of the impact of Megalithic Southern Aurora.
Solar Cycle 25 > 2024 Oz is lighting up with Massive record displays of vibrant Aurora Australis.
Dedicated websites are record gold mines...tbb is hookin' a swathe of that payload toward swellnet.
Tassie Margaret is hooking 1,000/day > UK Andy's Oz app is hookin' 7,400/min > Ovating 444K / hits hr
Consider that facebook bump any Aurora trespassers...that's pretty impressive...tbb is locked out!
Each year...Solar Flared Southern Auroras further charge notably more record Oz lightning Strikes...
Nov Peak 2020-21 = 1m strikes / day for a day or two...pretty frightful.
Nov Peak 2022 = 1m strikes / day for a whole week...now ramping next level
Nov Peak 2023 = 1m strikes / day for a whole month...now Lightning strikes are off the fuckin' charts
Yes! Yes! Of course this is an Oz record + Hodads swear biggest brightest Auroras in their lives...ever!
Each record Aurora = Record Lightning / Rain / Flood each year onward we are in uncharted territory
Yes! tbb is saying...data is showing prolonged record heightened periods Electromagnetic energy.
Sure ....Teams with longer rising atmospheric Covid Waves...another story!
No! No one else is collating Lightning like this on the open web...because all data is US centric.
Not a problem to US then it's not real...does not compute!
They say...Like no change to 'Avg' SST > flares are out > slacks are in!
Like tbb just pointed to Record High Oz Ocean fippin' record cold S'America dead zone...All Equal!
Has no bearing on Oz torchin' their ECC..don't care for quaint average nuthin' we're gettin' roasted alive!
Just coz yanks still ain't discovered downunder on any weather maps don't stop us cookin' chooks!
Come here ya dumb fuckers...now dip yer heads in our Hot Tub...sizzle...Face Peel! Yes! ...well durr!
Oz punters laugh at Solar 25 song sheet...can see their Sky is on fire!
Plain as night meets day people...now larger than science...secret is out...Solar Flares = record weather!
People are voting with their feet...All now hail a new weather God...Aurora Australis.
All feel it or see it but live it & know it's bossing their world...No longer need Weather Girls or BOM.
All just point to the heavens...That! Wotz that!...OMG...we're are being served up on a plate! [SOS]
Sure! Need longer armed Space Weather Chix waving wands to light up the Charts...Whooshka!
Another flare...there goes Cairns the Goldie now another Vic town....there goes my pet cat!...Like That!
Fuck Aquarius...now the Age of the fiery Red haired Sun Goddesses...flicks match...torches the Lot.
https://www.youtube.com/@TamithaSkov
Record offset Solar Flare belting of s/e Oz (All repeatedly being bashed in exact same place & time!)
Record Vibrant Auroras > Lightning > Rain > Floods > Disaster bills...all off the fuckin' charts!
Doubt if Sun God reads the latest on La Nina vs El Nino teen angst..."Oh Really! Ya don't say!" # Zap**
Huey : "Hey! That wasn't very nice...just chill ya big bully!"
Downunder Weather Charts & Data were ever off the world radar...how ya like me now!
Southern wayward offset Aurora Australis is supercharging the Blue Planet's oceans & weather!
Sounds fab...but we s/e Oz folk are first on the Sun's menu...Gulp! Alright! Why pick on us!
Reckon Albo's record inflation GST haul Storm handouts won't grease the sides of record pork barrel.
tbb is not even addin' on record ever growing Covid Hospital crisis (Shh! Real alright! Explain later!)
Gonna have to 'hoy Huey for higher help...last seen sippin' Coladas in Hawaii.
Huey : "Endless Summer Stickers are your creation, not in my job description...I don't repair Sunny's hot tubs!"
ABC are picking up on the coming La Niña.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-29/australia-weather-modelling-la-ni...
We're starting to see cool water anomalies in the sub-surface in the eastern Pacific, moving towards the surface..
Here we go, a bit of surface cooling is showing in the eastern Pacific..
This is the sea surface temperature trend over the last week, note the purple along the equator.
AIDS! Can we get a SEQLD drought please.
I'll happily stop hosing my driveway for a few years with no rain.
Craigos - what is your throw at the stumps on percentage chance of a swing back to the na na na?
For me it looks 80% at this point in time.
Not what I wanted to hear but Danke shoen nonetheless. Cheers Craigos !