Cloudbreak kicks into winter gear
As those who've been watching the Quiksilver Pro know, the Coral and Tasman Seas have been very quiet for the last week. Only two days of contestable surf has broken on the Gold Coast and the rest of the waiting period looks equally grim.
The news, however, is much brighter on the other side of the Coral Sea where Cloudbreak is going to pump on Monday and Tuesday, two days before the waiting period of the Quiksilver Pro finishes.
Although winter is officially three months away the first deep south swell signifies the beginning of the surf season. Through today and tomorrow we'll see a couple of vigorous cold fronts projected up through the Tasman Sea, under the influence of the Long Wave Trough. The first front pushing through today will generate a healthy 6ft or so of groundswell for Sunday afternoon, but of greater importance is a much stronger secondary low forming tomorrow.
This tight little system will deepen once it pushes into the Tasman Sea, projecting a fetch of 30-50kt winds towards Fiji while acting on an active sea state produced by the front before it. The result will be a large long-period S/SW groundswell due to kick late in the day Monday, peaking through the evening and easing into Tuesday.
Cloudbreak should kick to an easy 6-8ft through the afternoon with 10ft bomb sets more than likely towards dark, with easing 6-8ft surf through Tuesday. Conditions will be ideal as well with light to moderate trades from the east Monday and east-northeast Tuesday.
With competition almost certainly set to run tomorrow, albeit in small waves, and the next comp not set for three more weeks, any eliminated pros will be keen to swap 2ft Snapper for pumping 8ft Cloudbreak. //CRAIG BROKENSHA
Cloudbreak WAMs
Comments
Craig , like minds ...
I've been watching this system since last week . And noted with caml that it looked similar to past events of solid surf . Not sure on EPICness , but the other devil in the detail is a low forming Nth of Fiji could provide a couple days of Awesome light NE winds , followed by either a Battering or an EPIC cyclone swell . Bit of a Knife edge there .
Fortune favours the Brave ....
How about you guys team up with Roy Stuart and send our man Caml to test out Roys new boards . Just for objectivity perhaps you entice Brute to help the hookup and gain exclusivity for your site ?
Mind you , you'll need someone with some nerve to see if you can get both systems on ?
Yeah exactly, pumping CB and then some funky setups with that NW groundswell. Be a good week as long as the tropical cyclone stays to the west.
There's also another smaller but long period SW swell late that week , which could
Help the S swell off the back of the transitioning sthward TC .
Either way , if you were a goofy , you'd want to make sure ya Backhand
Was up to scratch ! ;-)
Camel can't go, he's got a week of 5-10 foot blacks
Southey I'm free to go Monday, if there is someone organising trip. It's not a polar low but I thought the period would have been bigger than the 13 seconds. Tuesday is the day cloudbreak 8-10 light winds all day
Peak periods are up around 19s when the swell first arrives Monday morning, bulk of it is in the 15-16s range for the afternoon/evening.
nothing on the SN forecast 16s or higher
Ah, latest update is..
Our model isn't as high-res as some others that are running and they are showing fore-runners to 22.8 seconds!
Surely they can move the finals of the quiky pro to CB? It's a mobile event isn't it!!! ;)
That'd be some wiring effort to get from froggys to tavarua!
Just Bluetooth we'll do ! ;-)
I'm guessing Caml will need a board caddy too so you better count me in for that...
And why would a goofyfoot ever want to go to Cloudbreak.. hmm.
The fishing of course!
now that Slater is not with quiky anymore, and the forecast here is shitty, wonder if he will do a runner for big cloudbreak........
With such a shit outlook for the quikky pro, it would be great to see a heap of the top guys and gals all piss off and surf CB with this swell ... sure, ASP will issue fines, but, the media coverage (both mainstream and surfing press) would more than compensate ...
The surfer's sponsors would get much better value for money ...
Take a few video and photog guys, and the coverage would be epic, and make the ASP 'pro show' at D'bah look pretty fucking ordinary.
Hell, maybe the WSL will then wake up and realise the potential for that style of "event" ???
Nail in the coffin for the tired 'ole ASP sirf comp format too!
Damnit appts coming up for me , Cant travel . Well at least the swell could be up down the southside too
cloudbreak already showed the world tour up for what it is!6ft n under only thanks.the best surfers in the world? sat on the beach n watched underground chargers with serious equiptment take it on!shoulnt a pro be able to surf all conditions?
men n women paddling into big waves is the contest the world wants to see not teenagers doing tricks!bring on the big wave tour,i'll be on the beach watching with 3/4 of the asp wsl!
Hows the latest forecast looking .....Cloudbreak still gonna happen ?
yeah looks on like donkey kong .
seeing first hand for the last 3 days the strength of the fronts down here , and the sharp rise in swell in NSW i would think that it might be bigger than forecast .
local winds are probably still up in the air , but if the forecast TC up in that area keeps drifting west then it could be good there all week from smaller ground swell , regardless of what cyclone swell may follow .
Agreed Southey. Given the size in NSW it's like to be consistently 10ft at Cloudbreak, with bigger washthroughs at times. Winds should be fine for Sun/Mon but jeez you wouldn't want to be hanging around any longer than that!
Washthroughs at cloudbreak ? Rideable
Figuratively speaking of course. I just thought I'd use a different word than 'bomb'.
i reckon the models are under cooking the westward track of Pam ?
either way you'd have to be strong in your convictions to hang around ....
Were some incredible buoy readings here Sydney Thursday night with a 10m wave recorded. Add in a captured fetch, active seastate, I think the models have undercooked it significantly. Yesterday the bombies were 10 foot with 12 and 15 footers coming through. Today its dropped off to 2m but that's a solid 60 hours of big swell, and that's refracted too....
Wjnds look real good. Though get out Thursday.
Yep I'd expect more size than my initial forecasts seeing what pushed through Sydney. Jeez it's gonna be epic!
Camel .
This swell was designed for you .
Mick you still keen for tomorrow ?
Ben & Craig , are you guys going to take me serious
Now when I talk about ' redirected swell ' . There's no way
That the trailing short lived hybrid ECL / front could produce
Swell with that much punch . Yes maybe that size at short periods
If it was parked off the coast , but redirection has to take the
mother load of responsibility for the energy . ?
What do you mean 'redirected'?
What's your theory again Southey? We think the Coriolis Effect may steer swells more to the left but this has to be for swells travelling for at least a day.
Also Thursday evening's pulse is a classic captured fetch scenario. Front moving at pretty much the same speed as the swell it's producing resulting in that huge and defined swell kick Thursday evening before dropping back just as quick Friday as the "swell blob" pushed through.
Interesting to note as well the Batemans Buoy didn't show anywhere near the size (not even half) of what was seen on the Sydney buoy, meaning the swell was basically generated in the 3-400km or so, amazing!
Also the Coal Coast and Wollongong came in under half the size seen at Cronulla and Sydney.
Two questions of you guys .
Can you upload the spectrals for both Thursday-Friday and yesterday's swell peak .
My interest pertains to swell period and how much SSE - SE component was in the swell .
Again my theory is that captured fetch systems can redirect a swell up to 60-70 degrees but more likely and without losing much strength 0-30 degrees from the initial sea States energy . Radiated energy drives so many systems down here ( mainly from the abundance of pure W component that is available ) that especially people down here are unaware of its prevalence and actual importance in providing consistent conditions .
Yep I can go 8:30 flight out of Sydney. Boat ready.
Yes there was a small change in direction yesterday to SSE at 172 degrees. It made a big difference between Friday Saturdays surf in terms of what broke
Thursday evening's peak has gone already from the data, but Friday and Saturday's data is here: Generally S'ly with yesterday evening having a touch more S/SE..
http://new.mhl.nsw.gov.au/media/animated/index.php?station=syddow&path=i...
Wow that's some storm coming. 12.1m at 16 feet forecast 40 feet of NW swell. Southey are you up for a hit and run? Not many takers at the moment...
Go bro;)
Magnet Mick........
nah sorry Mick can't do ..... and if I did i'd want to go for longer than two days .
but there is nothing wrong with being SOLO man , have a crack .
that storm may keep the numbers down , and travelling alone may make it easier for you to hang till the last minute then do the bolt . I still think they will dodge the worst of the winds , rain on the other hand not so . then again I couldn't think of a worse place to be " stuck " for a week or so with waves everyday alone .
Southey i can remember our discussion a yr or 2 ago about the redirected swell & captured fetch . I understand what your saying & have some theories too that arent scientifically approved
yeah it doesn't matter caml ,
I'm sure you score waves because of your theory , I know I have .
you rely on such things to get shit done that most of us would only dream of ,
i'm just lucky surfing isn't my first calling . Fuck I wish I started earlier , if my mind game was at current levels , when my fitness and water time was at its peak . Then yeah i'd ride out a cyclone to score EPIC waves.
I know if I had no ' attachments " , I wouldn't let opportunity's like this pass up .
Report in heap of swell but the west wind already into at CB this morning on the high tide, another place epic which is the only place to surf in that wind. Its going to blow tits up from the NE after tomorrow am and all the talk is of evacuation......mmm please I passed it up. Looked good yesterday but only overhead from the photos I have seen on the gram. That was a smoking swell event from Thursday night to Sat night though.
West wind? Models have very light E'ly and the last available ASCAT has similar (if not no wind).
Yeah funny eh said it was big onshore and wonky at CB. He was out all morning
Flawless posted by Fijichili this morning..
www.instagram.com/fijichili
Flawless conditions with a building swell all afternoon at #Cloudbreak . Pre cyclone conditions . #fiji #tavarua #soooglassy @tourismfiji @fijifinds @fly_fijiairways @djackson_unchained
That's an afternoon shot though . Probably yesterday . ?
Ben would Ascat pickup localised sea breezes .?
I know sea breezes generally increase the trades I around Fiji , but if there is no trade wind as such . Then there's nothing to stop localised westerlies in sunny conditions .? Clouds maybe cloudbreaks friend in such scenarios .
Ah yes, thought it was from this morning mentioning the building swell this afternoon, but was posted 9 hours ago so had to be yesterday.
That and the clouds above the wave show more light on the western side !
Yep, indeed!
I reckon it always suffers from a little morning sickness too. It needs a few coffees to grind into gear.
Jesus!
Taylor Steele hasn't claimed that pic....yet.
Haha. That's cause Scott Winer and Surfline would sue his arse.
Udo I keep sending Poor Speciman Productions an invoice, guessing he just deletes my emails. At 3% interest a month, his final bill will be massive Udo
Was it good ? Did we miss out , mick , southey , crew ?
Haven't heard anything yet besides that photo from Sunday evening and Mick's report.
Nothing big on the social media feeds that I have seen from yesterday, but Stu's got some shots up at from Sunday at fijisurfshots.com/
Heard it was epic this morning with nice light and winds. Tide got it early though, and now wind gone to NE. Everyone bunkering down now for cyclone.
Maybe see a few shots come through on the insta
From Alex Gray.. www.instagram.com/a_gray
"The last two days at #cloudbreak have been absolutely perfect. As good as conditions get six to twelve feet. Best place on earth. Photo: @fijisurfco #fiji #turkeymelt"
Nice ! Any washthroughs ? (0r bombs )? (Couple here )
Heap of photos up from Stu from yesterday.
http://fijisurfshotsgallery.weebly.com/
Just a couple 707 of them....! Yesterday.
His girlfriend must of got bored after 69....
Think the consensus was in 3 foot Sunday 4-5 foot Monday and 6 foot Tuesday. A few * foot cappers on the ledge but nothing that was turbo charged. That's how I see it anyway. Which means that turbo charged swell had focus points locally (Sydney) and didn't have enough steam to get up to Cloudbreak. Interesting....
4-5 foot Monday? The first hundred or so of those shots are Monday and there're plenty that look bigger than that, especially those taken later in the day. For e.g:
Alex Grey was calling it 6-12ft in Craig's post above which looks more in line with what I'm seeing in this photo.
Yeah Mick, when I seen the WAMS on SN and where the low was producing that swell....! It was nearly hitting Taranaki, way up past the south island... so to speak and everyone jumped on the high horse.
Doesn'T CB get the primo swells from big Southern Storms way way deep...? \
Any strong system pushing up through the Tasman Sea towards the Coral Sea/Fiji is good.
For the huge swells you want those strong polar frontal progressions starting south-southwest of Tassie and projecting up perfectly through pinball alley (Aus and NZ).
Yeah 3ft Mick? This photo from Sunday is at least 5ft if not 6ft, the waves not close to the surfers, so way bigger than appears.
I'd trust Alex Gray's call, probably 6-8ft with 10-12ft bomb sets I'm guessing. (guy paddling furthest, far right) is pretty small, looks like it'd be 2x overhead.
Another one here from yesterday I think on the backside of the swell.. http://www.instagram.com/gadestar
How about we get some footage of Tuesday !?
I've had better / bigger beachies this summer than that arvo Sunday monday morning footage . ( mind you i wasn't in boardies ). Of the 707 images it was clear it was slowly building through monday , and went a little overcast , which is good .
If it didn't reach expectations ( 10ft + Proper size not face ) bombs Tuesday then i presume the cut off didn't stall long enough or moved too fast to the east south east . Sometimes a cutoff embedded in a front is best as the front propells the circulation in a NE movement which helps the captured fetch scenario . The other issue could be that the bulk of the roaring forties swell did not have good timing with the cut off 's max intensity , so you don't get the proper captured projection .
Still photo's or not Tuesday would have been fun .
I'm still calling that Pam , apart from collosal rain will not completely smash Fiji with winds , and that Vanuatu is in the firing line . The latest GFS backs this up with westerly movement in the forecast track .
Better beachies than cloudbreak! You sure we live in the same state??
yep you were right its fully moved to the west.
http://tropicalstormrisk.com has it going cat 5 just as it arrives into Vanuatu.
Bigger than the Sunday arvo monday morning footage . Your only talking stock standard typical winter 4 ft cloudbreak there . and who said it was in your state.
Southey you've got to be joking mate, stock standard 4ft Cloudbreak!
4ft Hawaiian
Sure, some of those shots from Monday morning in between swells looked more 4-5ft but easy 6ft sets when that cloud started coming in, and the swell was only due late in the day.
If Alex is saying 6-12ft I'm not going to question it. I only expected 6-8ft with 10ft bombs, so sounds about right.
Be good to see what photos come out of here but.
craig ,
i was the first to pick the eyes out of your first photo . ( sunday afternoon shot ) .
That was clearly a rogue set , as everyone is inside of it ( and no one riding it ) .
It is hard to tell size from that but if you go back to Stu Johnstons blog photos there were alot of average photos of guys trying to stuff themselves inside small tubes on the Sunday Arvo and monday morning .
I'll give you credence that Gadestar's barrel is 6 ft , but that appears to be Monday Afternoon ....
mind you my work computer is very wide screen with the ratio aspect a little askew .... regardless i've seen a few images on it including my own that give me credence to still judge .
sorry craig , the guy getting pitted above was the only thing i've seen that has got me semi aroused .... hahah
fuck if i was camel i'd be very underwelmed .
Tuesday am footage is the key .
Yeah you guys . Didnt miss anything . Was probaly better staying in oz . Odd washthrough as well !
Look at the latest photos I've added, I'd give anything to get epic CB like that!
Hahaha the old wave size chestnut. Alex Gray is from California so will measure wave size in face so 12 foot face is 6 foot wave. I haven't seen anything bugger that that. That photo of gadestar looks morning, Tuesday?
"I haven't seen anything bugger that that." Bloody hell, you Kiwi blokes even type phonetically!
Ha ha fush and chups aye !! ah seen that photo of laura too - cracker!
Okay back on a normal screen at home ... I'll give your 8ft + ....
In that case swellnet got it right , and no extra size . :-)
Just got some feedback from a mate (a somewhat Mexican looking bloke) who we did some forecasting for this swell. In his words:
"Best surf trip I've ever had, forecast was spot on, even winds. Was only 12 out max, Alex Gray, Laura Enever and two of the nicest Brasilian surfers I've ever met (Ian and Thiago). Laura had a photographer - I ain't seen those shots yet, but one thing for sure is that she charged and also got the waves of her life. In fact everyone did."
Looka epic here! www.instagram.com/duncanm
"Pretty blown away by the past 48hours of my life. Thanks @lauraenever and@a_gray that was rad."
www.instagram.com/lauraenever
"Losing at the #roxypro was the best mistake I ever made many many thanks for the absolute perfection Cloudbreak Pic @duncanm thanks for having us@namotu @mexicano_restaurant"
This one Mick? www.instagram.com/dylmoe
"I witnessed some insane surfing these passed few days. Here is @lauraenevercharging #cloudbreak. @namotu @a_gray #namotuislandresort"
Fuck that's so sick!
Pretty stoked with the forecast, as are the people that chased it.
Can we get a timeline on these photos .... Perhaps even a swell forecast - photo analysis . I didn't look at your forecasts after the initial first post , did you guys upgrade it when we discussed Sydney's obs ?! What was the eventual forecast peak , size , period , direction , time , local winds .
I presume the Tuesday AM was " the day " , looks like deserted deserts , with a full tide .
I hope someone has stayed to photo tomorrow's rights !!!!!!! ;-))
Looks like the LWT may potentially position itself rather nicely for the end of the women's waiting period (5th June). Hopefully that doesn't mean the men miss out with the next node of the LWT?
Yeah that's right Don.
Inconsitent but good long-range S/SW groundswell for next Tuesday/Wednesday to 4-5ft or so, then a larger swell on the cards for later Thursday, building further Friday probably in the 6ft+ range. This depends on what actually occurs in the Tasman Sea early next week. If it's a cut-off and closer to the Australian East Coast it won't be as favourable.
Bit far out, but yeah the start of the Men's waiting period doesn't look too interesting.
Surfline are talking it up for the girls - good - epic.
http://www.surfline.com/surf-news/tracking-intense-storm-for-start-of-fi...
Story of WSL short life....average. Its been a pretty good past 6 weeks in Fiji
Hmmmm latest GFS long range forecast certainly an about face for the men's first week!!!
Dane Reynolds has the wildcard.
Jay Davies is in too :)
Looks like the blokes may get one decent swell. Starting late on Friday 12th and continuing through to Sun 14th based on latest forecasts.
Run Rd 1 on the first day of the waiting period, Sunday 7th (on the backside of the girls big swell event) and then use the remaining 2.5-3 days from Friday 12th to finish the event.
Yeah they've got no issues at all regarding swell, large one on the way as well for the period you've indicated, plus another couple late in the period.
I'm assuming most of the men will be arriving early to score Cloudbreak this Friday whilst the girls final is being held over at Restaurants?
The latest call is they are trying to move the event forward 1 day so they start on Saturday rather than Sunday....
Really? There's no need to, they've got plenty of days to choose from.
That's what they reckon on Stab....
Well they may wanna notify all of the pros ASAP as some of them are notorious for flying in at the last minute....aka old baldy.
I see no basis for this rumour, especially with tons of swell to pick the eyes out of.
And you'd think they'd (WSL) be announcing this sooner rather later given we're only 3 days away from from a possible start if they bring it forward to Saturday.
maybe its not possible to bring the mens forward a day because of the small amount of accomodation available,only surmising cause i dont know,havent been there.......yet
Why are they running the women's today in shit?
wow just tuned in....lumpy shite. Can't believe they are running. The only possible explanation for that is the blokes are on tomorrow, but surely that can't be happening. Pressure is on Surfline calling epic tomorrow, Stab calling phenomenal. That swell hit Monday arvo in Sydney and should start filtering through today peaking tonight tomorrow.
Also there is a ton of accomodation Simba on the mainland so they should be fine. Only 45 mins out to cloudbreak from Denaru. But they will be kicking the girls of Tavarua pretty quick if they are running tomorrow.
Gee Sally style looks so much better when the waves get bigger seems to flow much more through he turns
Well it def cleaned up from what I saw early morning but whilst conditions were glassy it was still a sloppy cloudbreak at best.
I'm still dumbfounded as to why they ran and completed the women today? Any inside knowledge as to why the WSL did this? Too big for the girls at Cloudy tomoz and too shallow/dangerous at Restaurants tomorrow for them?
Exactly!!! Need some answers on this....
Exactly!!! Need some answers on this....
Surely they have to run tomorrow.
Doubt they can. Jordy Smith only pulled out this morning, meaning his replacement, Aritz Aranburu, only got the call up this morning. How fast can you get from the Basque Country, or wherever he was, to Fiji?
not sure but I'd be happy to sub for Aritz .....I can make the airport by five pm.
I really hope they don't start the comp early, I want to surf Restaurants on Saturday! But if they do I'll throw my hat in with freeride and sub for Aritz. I'd obviously finish in an impossible world record 76th place, but the entertainment value for the folks watching would be immense.
imagine if a mug punter off the streets got through a heat.
I'm always imaging that happening, then I wake up in a cold sweat and realise I'd probably be shitting myself so much in 8-10ft pumping Cloudbreak with the whole surfing world watching, I'd go over the falls on the first wave, then cop the rest of the set on the head. By the time the jet ski has pulled me out after a 3 wave hold-down I'm too buggered to catch another one. I gave it my best shot though.
Hoping for a good result for Aca this year. He's been ripping at Cloudy recently. Although, it's a different story in heats against the best, seasoned, competition surfers in the world though.............
Go the girls,cant believe how there charging now,getting flogged and back out there.Big lumpy and unpredictable cloud break but the cream rose to the top.Sally, Bianca and Johanne were standouts.
Guessing the wind was the problem - 15-20 knots this morning from the SE and 10 foot plus at Cloudbreak. That would have left the women's at Resturants today. Maybe they wanted to send them out in big cloudbreak rather than 4-5 foot cloudbreak??
Probably have to ask the women's commissioner.
Any update om the rumour they're going to start the mens a day early? (ie tomorrow)