Effective from: Fri 17 May '13, 05:07PM

Forecast prepared by Ben Matson.
Next update Mon 20/5 5pm.

Previous day's summary:

Victor Harbor's seen mainly average to poor waves over the last few days, apart from a brief period at dawn each morning when winds were W/NW. The Mid Coast was tiny and average on Thursday, but a small groundswell filled in overnight providing straight, clean 1-1.5ft waves today.

Forecast period ahead:

Overall, very small leftover swell is expected this weekend with light winds Saturday tending N/NW on Sunday.

Our internal high resolution wave model is calling for a minor pulse of new swell from lunchtime Sunday into the afternoon (1ft on the Mid Coast), but I honestly can't see where it's coming from - the leading edge of the first in a series of long range groundswells is not due to arrive in until the evening, and a small mid-range swell originating from a weak front traversing the Bight today and tomorrow isn't expected to arrive until Monday (even then, one foot would be generous from that source). So, let's flag Sunday afternoon's minor pulse on the radar but don't be surprised if nothing eventuates.

As for Victor, it's going to be a Waits-and-Parsons affair this weekend with late Saturday and early Sunday your best choice. Size will be very small along the Middleton-Day Street stretch.

Monday may see a few inconsistent waves on the Mid from a distant groundswell, but no great size is expected here or down south either. Winds should remain light, maybe even swing NE late in the day, so a Victor mission may bear some fruit at exposed spots again.

Righto, the next interesting development in our swell window is a cut off low in the Bight from Monday onwards. Ordinarily these systems deliver good (westerly) swells for the Mid Coast but this one currently looks like it might be a dud - computer models have it sliding up way to north in latitude, so that the westerly fetch along its northern flank is actually positioned over land. There is a chance that the models may steer the low further south over the coming days, but right now I'm keeping my expectations low, expecting a small round of windswell late Wednesday or most likely Thursday.

Rewinding things back a couple of days, and a small but intense low in the southern Indian Ocean will kick up a small long period swell due to arrive later Tuesday (peaking Wednesday at most spots). It'll be worth keeping an eye on the South Port surfcam Tuesday afternoon for a sneaky late surf as this energy fills in, however freshening N'ly winds may spoil the party at this time. Wednesday may see some small inconsistent waves in the Mid but we'll have to take a closer look at things on Monday. Otherwise, there should be options at Victor during this period.

Elsewhere, the significant weather progression in the southern Indian Ocean I mentioned on Wednesday is still on track to produce a serious round of groundswell for the entire southern Australian coastline, starting about Friday next week and holding through the weekend and probably even Monday of the following week. It's still too early to pin down specifics so I'll take a closer look in MOnday's update. Either way next weekend is still on track for muy buenas olas.