Effective from: Wed 23 May '12, 04:30PM

Forecast prepared by Craig Brokensha
Next update Fri 25/5 6pm.

Previous day's summary:

Yesterday morning started tiny but a new swell built into the late afternoon with a peak seen this morning. The W/SW swell direction saw 2ft waves at South Clifton with bigger sets at North and conditions have remained clean all day with morning offshores tending variable into the afternoon.

Swell events within the forecast period:

1) Easing W/SW groundswell tomorrow
This morning's W/SW groundswell should have eased slightly into this afternoon will drop away further into tomorrow leaving inconsistent 1-2ft waves across Clifton. You'll have to get in early though as morning W/NW winds will tend S'ly during the morning as a shallow change pushes across the region.

2) Small pulse of SW groundswell for Friday morning ahead of a medium sized S/SW groundswell for Saturday and a secondary pulse for Sunday
Currently close to the polar shelf to the south-west of us a polar front is producing a fetch of SW gales. This should generate a small and inconsistent SW groundswell for Friday to 1-2ft across Clifton. Conditions will be best early with a light offshore ahead of afternoon S/SE sea breezes.

The weekend is looking very active with a couple of strong S/SW groundswells pushing in while there'll also be medium levels of windswell in the mix. Unfortunately winds will be onshore from the SE tending S/SW Saturday and then generally SW Sunday although there's an outside chance for early W'ly winds.

But coming back to the swell and a couple of vigorous polar fronts will push through our southern swell window during the next 2-3 days with winds being in the severe-gale to sub-storm-force range. The first should fill in on Saturday and build to a solid 3-4ft during the afternoon while the secondary pulse should increase to a larger 3-5ft during Sunday afternoon. Now also in the mix will be similar levels of S/SW windswell as a deepening low to our north moves east, opening its southern flank to our South Coast. This will be the system responsible for the onshore winds and it should move off to the east through Sunday with winds tending back to the W/NW on Monday as the S/SW groundswell eases from 3-4ft.

Long term forecast (6+ days):
The longer term outlook remains active with the Long Wave Trough node to our east weakening, but still remaining favourably positioned for swells to be aimed through our swell window. We'll review this again on Friday so check back then for an update.