Effective from: Wed 23 May '12, 05:18PM

Forecast updated 23/5 5pm. Next update 25/5 5pm.
Forecast prepared by Steve Shearer.

Swell Events in this Forecast.

NE windswell Thurs/Fri tending to punchy NE swell Sat morning ,before easing during the day.

Strong S swell building Mon, holding Tuesday before easing during the day.

Further SSE swell expected into mid/late next week as low drifts towards New Zealand.

Not much to report upon with surf holding mostly in the marginal 1ft range with light breezes keeping things clean. S facing beaches in NENSW have had slightly larger surf but nothing more that the very occasional 1-2ft set. Today surf has held in the tiny range with ankle-snappers across the region and light winds tending to seabreezes.

The pattern remains dynamic with an approaching upper level trough and cold front expected to see an increasing ENE flow through the southern Coral Sea and Northern tasman as a high located near New Zealand infeed into the approaching inland trough system. The upper trough and cold front combine to form a surface low E of Tasmania on Sat with gales to severe gale force SW/S winds forming from south of Tasmania up to the NSW central coast. These gales contract to the E on Sun, with reasonable odds the low could become slow moving as it tracks towards New Zealand. S swell from the initial burst of gales as it clears the NSW swell shadow is expected to see strong S swell propagating northwards on Mon. High pressure moving in behind the low sets up a ridge with winds from the SE establishing during Mon/Tues. Lets look at the details.

Onshore NE winds are expected to become established during Thursday, tending mod/fresh in NENSW and seeing the early stages of NE windswell development. Small surf in the morning should build to short period 2ft surf in the a'noon.

NE windswell continues to build into Fri as the fetch matures and reaches maximum strength before being shunted E'wards by the approaching trough/low system. Size should build into the 3ft+ range during the day and mod/fresh NNE/NE winds will confine protected/clean conditions to backbeaches.

With the low forming Sat a W'ly change is expected to develop through the region, with the punchy leftover NE swell in the 3ft+ range being cleaned up by the offshore winds. This surf will ease through the day with winds tending lighter SW in the a'noon.

Surf continues to ease during Sun with a light SW to S flow as the low east of Tasmania tracks across the Tasman and pressure gradients ease. Expect surf in the 2ft range, easing during the day.

By Mon high pressure sets up a ridge in the wake of the low's passing to the E. This should see winds tending S'ly to SSE'ly during the day. S swell will build during the a'noon with size expected to reach the 6ft range at NENSW S facing beaches. Expect a smaller signal at semi-exposed points and smaller again at more protected points in NENSW and into SEQLD.

Strong S swell holds into Tuesday morning in the 5-6ft range at NENSW, smaller 3-4ft at SEQLD S facing beaches before easing during the day. An easing trend is expected into Wed morning.

We'll need further model agreement before we can make a call on surf from Wed onwards. There's good odds we'll see further SSE swell developing during Wed a'noon or into Thursday as the low tracks across towards New Zealand with string SE winds through the central Tasman. This would see surf rebuilding into the 3-4ft range during late Wed or Thursday.

Longer term and we'll be watching the low as it tracks towards New Zealand for any signs of stalling and re-development. This would see further pulses of SE/ESE swell into late next week. Further cold fronts and low pressure is on track to enter the Tasman sea as the long wave trough becomes favourably positioned for the Tasman sea next week. Check back Fri for the latest details.