Effective from: Fri 17 May '13, 06:03PM

Forecast prepared by Ben Matson.
Next update Mon 20/5 5pm.

Previous day's summary:

Onshore winds are making for terrible surf conditions just about everywhere in Victoria today, and yesterday was quite similar. As for swell, we've got a short range event generated by the low that was previously located west of Tasmania and is now setting up camp in the lower Tasman Sea.

Forecast period ahead:

No major improvement is expected over the weekend as onshore winds will moderate only slowly in strength, while the existing swells ease slowly in size.

Monday is starting to look like we may see small OK options at the open beaches east of Melbourne. The leading edge of a long range groundswell is due to fill in overnight Sunday (generated by a small but intense low east of Heard Island yesterday), and although there will be a very long break between sets, we should see wave heights in the 3ft range at exposed beaches (don't expect much in Torquay).

A weak front is expected to stall west of the state during the day which will swing winds around to the north then north-west, so aim for an early surf and take a book to read (let's hope the models don't speed up, strengthen and/or push the front through Bass Strait, lest it change this wind forecast). I wouldn't take the day off work for it, but if you're in the area it's worth keeping the board in the back of the car.

Tuesday looks relatively benign as we'll be between swells and weather patterns (so winds should be light) however another long period swell will arrive overnight - a little bigger than Monday's - to fill out the coast with waves on Wednesday. But the great unknown for the middle of next week is how much a developing low in the Bight will impact Victorian waters.

Current model guidance suggests we'll see a freshening easterly breeze swinging southerly late Wednesday (or overnight), which may give rise to a brief period of clean waves east of Melbourne. However, right now there's no suggestion that this low will be a groundswell-producer for Victoria - we may see some local windswell but that's about it. So, keep your expectations low. I'll update in more detail on Wednesday.

Looking further ahead, and the significant weather progression in the southern Indian Ocean is still on track to produce a serious round of groundswell for the entire southern Australian coastline, starting about Friday next week and holding through the weekend and probably even Monday of the following week. It's still too early to pin down specifics so I'll take a closer look in Monday's update.