Effective from: Thu 16 May '13, 03:23PM

Forecast prepared by Ben Matson.
Next update Tues 21/5 5pm.

Previous day's summary:

Wave heights have been small in NE Tasmania over the last few days. Southerly winds are slowly freshening today as a low develops off the coast.

Forecast period ahead:

The forecast period is quite tricky for the entire east coast of Tasmania. Although a large, broad low pressure system is developing off the coast, the computer models have changed a few crucial characteristics that have a large bearing on its surf potential.

First and foremost, a large ridge of high pressure well to the west of the state is expected to maintain position for several days (helping to anchor the low in the Tasman), but it will also develop an unusual secondary ridge well to the south of the state (between Tasmania and Antarctica). This is squeezing the low in such a way that the southerly extend of its western flank - the region that would ordinarily generate swell for us - is now likely to be very short in length. Worse, it's positioning some of this fetch over land and inside the Tasmanian swell shadow, which is a double blow.

All in all, I'm going to downgrade my size expectations from Tuesday as the current model guidance suggests we'll see only 3-4ft max at south facing beaches on Saturday, and smaller surf either side of this. Winds will be gusty but should retain more SW than straight S in direction, which will assist things but on the balance - but overall I'm not terribly excited about the forecast period.

As a side note, your best surfing options - if you've got transport - will be on Friday at protected locations facing due south. A directional southerly swell (aimed just out of the East Coast's swell window) will push through during the morning and should create some fun waves at some of the more unusual locations in SE Tasmania. Nothing huge but worth a look.

Further ahead, and there's nought of interest for the foreseeable future. We've got a myriad of small scale systems popping up on the charts, but I'm going to ignore them for now as they're likely to move around over the coming days. Beyond mid next week, a strong westerly pattern in the Southern Ocean will be the focus for the region into the end of next week and the weekend, which won't favour the East Coast at all. Stay tuned for updates (next Tues, unless something significant happens in the interim).