Effective from: Wed 23 May '12, 05:42PM

Forecast updated 23/5 5pm. Next update 25/5 5pm.
Forecast prepared by Steve Shearer.

Previous day's summary:

Not much surf to speak of since the last forecast with tiny/flat conditions persisting in a mostly NW synoptic flow. There is swell upcoming for the weekend to break the drought.

Swell Events in this Forecast.

Small surf continuing through the working week.

A dynamic pattern is on the cusp of unfolding later in the week and over the weekend but until then nor-east surfers will have to suffer through more flatness as high pressure in the Tasman and a zonal pattern in the southern Ocean continue to produce a NW synoptic flow over the state and very small surf through the working week. A tiny bump in S swell expected Thurs/Fri is only expected to bring surf in the 1ft range. 

Small NE swell Sat.

HIgh pressure in the Tasman has pressure gradients squeezed by an approaching inland trough and complex frontal system late this week. While the strong fetch of N/NE winds is mostly confined to the NSW northern and central coasts a small amount of NE swell is expected to be generated by this fetch for NE Tas, arriving Sat. Expect size in the 2ft range.

S/SSE swell expected Sun/Mon as low forms in Tasman. 

A deep surface low is expected to form off Tasmania or the NSW south coast on at as a cold front and upper trough combine. Gales are expected to be formed off the east coast of Tasmania during Sat with S swell building into the 3-4ft range during the day. Surf is likely to hold into Sun  as SE winds on the southern flank of the low generate SE groundswell for the east coast. An easing trend is expected Mon with surf easing back to tiny by Tues under a mostly W'ly flow.

Longer Term Forecast (6+days)

The next series of cold fronts are expected to pass to the south of Tasmania during the middle of next week with mostly zonal (W'ly) fetches aimed at targets to the E. This should see tiny surf become established into the end of next week. Check back Fri for details.