Effective from: Wed 19 Jun '13, 10:30AM

Forecast prepared by Craig Brokensha
Next update Fri 21/6 6pm.

Previous day's summary:

Monday afternoon's increase in W/SW groundswell held into yesterday well across both coasts as light variable winds created lumpy/glassy conditions. The surf has eased back a touch today with winds again swinging around a bit with nothing excellent breaking across the region.

Swell events within the forecast period:

Wave heights should continue to ease into the end of the week but winds will swing offshore from the N/NE favouring the Mornington Peninsula. Heading into the weekend a new long-range W/SW tending SW groundswell will fill in, generated by a polar low that developed south-west of WA earlier in the week and will move along the polar shelf under the country.

The initial stages of the low has produced a W/SW groundswell, with the secondary stages producing a SW swell. The Surf Coast should build to 2ft Saturday, with 3-5ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, and hold into Sunday at a similar size. Winds look to be from the E/NE all weekend though, favouring the beaches east of Melbourne.

Long term forecast (6+ days):
A small and inconsistent long-range W/SW groundswell should fill in Tuesday afternoon next week but a stronger W/SW groundswell is likely into the middle to end of next week. This could be generated by strong frontal activity south-west and under WA, but the models are divergent on the developments of another low off the East Coast, so check back here on Friday for the latest on this.