Effective from: Wed 22 May '13, 08:31PM

Forecast prepared by Ben Matson.
Next update Fri 24/5 5pm.

*sorry for the delay this evening.. Craig is back Monday so normal programming will resume then*

Previous day's summary:

Tiny waves have persisted along the Mid Coast for the last few days, and even though just 0.5-1ft in size, the lines have been distinctly visible on the South Port surfcam. Surf size has been similarly small at Victor Harbor but with manly NE winds on offer there have been fun waves at Waits, Parsons and Goolwa.

Forecast period ahead:

No new swell is expected on Thursday, so let's focus our attention towards the rest of the forecast period. I've been discussing this upcoming weather system and the resulting weekend's swell for more than a week now, and it's all starting to take shape very nicely.

The leading edge of this new groundswell is due to push through just after lunchtime on Friday, but we probably won't see an appreciable increase along the Mid Coast until the last few hours of the day at the earliest (now THIS is where the South Port surfcam will come in handy!). Winds are looking a little dicey with a shallow SW change expected to move in around the same time, however there is a reasonable chance for a late glass off.

Saturday should see the peak of this event, with inconsistent waves between 2ft and almost 3ft in the gulf, however the initial W/SW swell direction will limit surf size down south (3-4ft Middleton, 4-6ft Goolwa and Waits). Similar sized waves are expected on Sunday but it's likely that we may see even longer breaks between the bigger sets - especially on the Mid - as we push through the back end of this impressive swell event.

As for conditions, it should be clean just about everywhere in the mornings with light winds, however southerly breezes may affect both the Mid and South Coast Saturday and Sunday, so aim for an early session both days.

Looking further ahead, and as mentioned on Monday a blocking pattern will develop behind these fronts, backing up a series of intense lows in our far swell window. This doesn't mean we're looking at flat conditions, it just means that we'll see much more favourable conditions are swell size best suoited to exposed coasts.

To begin with , a polar low racing along the ice shelf on Saturday will kick up a small southerly swell for Tuesday, but it'll be a brief event. The swell direction will limit any penetration inside the gulf, so this will only favour the South Coast.

Beyond this, we're looking a a distant long range groundswlel arriving Wednesday (easing Thursday), ahead of a very long period W/SW groundswell pushing through for next weekend, originating from an intense southern Indian Ocean low developing east of Heard Island early next week. However, the resulting swell is likely to be only small along the Mid and South Coasts due to the very large travel distance. More on this in Friday's update.