Effective from: Fri 24 May '13, 04:48PM

Forecast prepared by Ben Matson.
Next update Fri 24/5 5pm.

Previous day's summary:

There wasn't any surf to get excited about in SE Qld on Thursday, but the drought has finally broken - long lines of new S/SE swell are pushing up ahead of a gusty southerly change associated with an East Coast Low off the Mid North Coast.

In fact, swell energy started pushing through to exposed beaches mid morning (earlier than I anticipated) and although it has remained tiny at most Gold Coast/Sunshine Coast beaches today, we are now seeing clean 1-2ft waves on the Gold Coast with 3ft+ sets at south facing beaches (slightly bigger waves are likely before the sun goes down). For reference, the NSW Mid North Coast was reportedly 8ft+ this morning but with gusty cross-onshore winds.

Forecast period ahead:

The good news is that there is essentially no major changes to the forecast from what was issued Wednesday. We're looking at a peak in S/SE swell on Saturday, somewhere in the 3-4ft range across most of the open beaches and points. However, super protected spots (i.e. Noosa) won't fare anywhere near as well due to the swell direction. And in fact I'm also a little suss on the Sunshine Coast's size prospects from the early phase of the swell event - don't be surprised if Saturday morning comes in a little under expectations at many locations north of Moreton Island. Once the fetch consolidates a little better further away from the mainland, we should see a decent amount of energy filter in across the Sunshine Coast, probably on Saturday afternoon and into Sunday. As for south facing beaches, we're looking at large windy waves here in the 5-6ft+ range on Saturday.

Wave heights will then level out and slowly ease through Sunday as the swell direction goes a little more around towards the SE. Sunday's wind regime should be similar to Saturday but lighter in strength. So, it'll be another day of fun waves on the points, albeit smaller.

Next week looks OK for surf prospects, however you might want to consider a road trip south of the border. We've got another prolonger series of south swells moving up the Tasman Sea, generated by a vigorous northward frontal progression between Tasmania and New Zealand.

Fortunately (in comparison to this week's south swell that failed to make an impact north of the Tweed Coast), this swell will have originated from further east in the Tasman Sea, so the resulting swell direction should be more S/SE, and should subsequently deliver small clean waves on the Gold Coast. Probably nothing special - just a foot or two - but exposed south swell magnets should see some 3ft+ sets at times from later Tuesday through Wednesday, easing Thursday. More on this in Monday's update.