South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Mar 22nd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Light winds over the weekend (may remain SE on the Sunshine Coast) with potential for fun beachbreaks
• Light winds looks to persist Mon-Wed next week
• Small S pulses and small E swells should offer a few fun days on the beachies Mon-Wed
• SE surge next Thurs week with some short range SE swell Thurs/Fri
• Possible better quality S/SE-SE swell over Easter weekend- check back Mon for latest update

Recap

Strong S’lies whipped up some impressive windswell yesterday with size building to 5-6ft across NENSW, smaller in SEQLD. E swell underneath that source held size in the 3-4ft range. S swell has eased a notch today, leaving a mix of S-S/SE and E swells to 3-4ft. Early winds were lighter SW-S, now tending mod/fresh SE and offering clean options on the Points.

Plenty of short range S/SE swell built in over the top of E swell yesterday under fresh S'ly winds

This weekend (Mar 23-24)

Just a few small tweaks for the weekend f/cast. We’re still looking at light winds, especially Sun, which should remain light and variable all day under sunny skies. There will be a bit more strength in the sou-easter north of the border through Sat so factor in that.

A lingering part of the trough in the central/Eastern Tasman should hold some 2-3ft surf from  the S/SE-SE mixed with some  E swell to 2-3ft or so. Definitely worth a look on the beachies with some small peelers on the Points once the SE wind kicks in and tide runs out.

Similar for Sun but down a notch on size an E swell slowly ebbs away. Widespread land breezes for the morning should offer clean conditions across the beachies (possibly a lingering SE flow on the Sunshine Coast as the exception). A small mix of leftover S/SE and E swells to 2ft should offer some fun peaks on the beachies with micro peelers on the Points on lower tides.

Next week (Mar 25 onwards)

Light winds continue into Mon and likely until Wed as the as the W-E progression of the next high cell (and subsequently fronts) slows and allows more intrusion of the S’ly fronts into the lower Tasman. S swells from frontal activity now look a notch more active next week, especially at S facing beaches in NENSW.

Small surf on Mon in the 2ft range continues to offer some fun beachies.

We should see a small bump in size Tues up into the 2 occ 3ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW, filling in during the morning and sneaking across the border later in the a’noon.

Tuesdays pulse eases into Wed with S facing beaches holding 2-3ft surf under favourable light winds- light land and seabreezes.  

Just a caveat- there is broad, weak area of low pressure in the Coral Sea expected next week, which anchors a weak E’ly flow which will add 2ft or so of E swell during the Sues-Thurs period. That area of low pressure may develop further which would require a substantial revision on Mon, or in the comment over the weekend.

S’ly to SE’ly winds strengthen through Thurs into Good Friday as another front pushes into the Tasman and a large high finally builds a ridge up the coast. We should see that ridge firm further through Good Friday as the high moves into the Tasman. We’ll see a continuation of small S swell through this period. We’ll also see a much more significant increase in short range SE swell from winds developing north of the ridge- likely up into the 4-5ft range Thurs into Fri. We’ll finesse size and timing on Mon.

Further ahead and there’s reasonable odds we’ll see an area of low pressure develop near the North Island later next week which will see a S/SE to SE fetch develop off the West Coast of the North Island, possibly down to Cook Strait. If that happens we’re on track for some nice S/SE swell possible as early as Easter Sat into Easter Sun. Bit early for specifics as models are still divergent about the outcomes and some runs not suggesting much at all to develop in that area.

We’ll flag it for now and see how it looks when we come back on Mon.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!