South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Mar 18th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S/SE groundswell for Northern NSW Sun PM and Mon
• E'ly swell holding through most of next week
• Spike in S-S/SE swell Thurs, holding into Fri with fresh S’ly winds Thurs, easing Fri
• Light winds over the weekend with potential for fun beachbreaks
• More E swell next week, at reduced levels

Recap

The weekend ran close to script with strong SE winds Sat confining surfable options to protected points- mostly in the 3ft range. Winds eased off Sun and both size and quality lifted a notch allowing for a fun spread of surf across regional points and anywhere with a modicum of protection from S’ly winds. Surf was running at similar sizes this morning (3-4ft) with a light onshore flow not affecting wave quality too much. Mostly E’ly swell but there was some visible S/SE groundswell showing in the 2-3ft range in NENSW.

A few fun sets Sun morning

This week (Mar 18-22)

Pretty typical late Summer pattern with a high in the Tasman and a maturing trade-wind flow in the Coral Sea, linked to an active monsoon trough with a small embedded low in the Coral Sea. There is a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Carpentaria which formed over the weekend but this system is expected to track inland over the NT and Kimberley regions and not be a swell source for the East Coast. We’ll see this pattern disrupted mid-week by an aggressive trough which brings S winds and swell before the next high slowly resets the trade pattern, this time further north in the Coral Sea.

In the short run we’ll see a continuation of moderate E’ly swells. Certainly nothing special compared to last weeks swell but size will hold on the 3ft+ range Tues, bigger by a notch (4ft) on Wed . Light E’ly winds north from the border with a more E/NE-NE flow as you head south from Byron. We may see that onshore flow light enough for land breezes to develop over the next couple of mornings but we’re still not quite there for that classic autumn morning pattern.

By Thurs a trough will be aggressively pushing up the coast, into Coffs by first light, and across the Northern Rivers by early morning.  A brief window of slack winds north of Byron will be extended in time north of the border before the change and offers clean conditions before strong S’lies develop. We’ll see a spike in new short range S-S/SE swell through the a’noon with size up to 3-5ft in the a’noon across exposed outer Points, bigger on S facing beaches which will be a blown out mess.

The S/SE swell spike persists into Fri at similar size but will ease through the day as the trough moves away quickly. Expect 3-5ft surf across the Points, with SE winds and an easing trend in play for S/SE swell in the a’noon, held up by continuing E swell to 3ft.

This weekend (Mar 23-24)

Generally easing winds this weekend. Pressure gradients ease and morning land breezes look likely, at least through NENSW up into the southern Gold Coast. Those winds will tend light/mod SE through the a’noon.

Swell tap is mostly turned off though so you’ll need to be ready to grovel. 

The tradewind band contracts eastwards later this week so that swell source will slowly ease across the weekend. It should hold in the 3-4ft range Sat, dropping slowly back to 2-3ft into Sun.

If winds co-operate we should see some fun beachies across the weekend to spread the crowd

Next week (Mar 25 onwards)

Small start to next week with reinforcing high pressure gradually shifting into the Tasman early next week. We should see a day of light winds Mon with small E swells to 2ft.

From there tradewinds rebuild in the Coral Sea, albeit at more subdued levels . It should be sufficient to see surf build back to 3ft or so for most of next week. Small S swell pulses may add some extra energy to NENSW S facing beaches early next week.
In short, nothing major on the radar but a few swell sources that should offer up some rideable options.

Check back Wed for the latest.