South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Jan 19th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swell and pulsey E swell combo this weekend with light winds tending SE Sat
• Bigger E swell Sun with early light winds tending N-NE during the day
• Pulsey E swell continues into Mon/Tues with light winds Mon AM before a stiff S’ly change
• Spike in S swell later Mon (on the MNC) Tues elsewhere with S-SE winds, easing through Tues
• Potential tropical cyclone in Coral Sea next week (TC Kirrily), uncertain surf potential at this early stage (low confidence in specifics) but big swells likely- check back Mon for latest revisions

Recap

Small, pulsey E swells have maintained fun surf across the region, although a subtle downwards trend was observed in some localities. Yesterday was in the 2-3ft range with light morning winds tending NE in the a’noon. Today has dropped a notch with mostly 2ft sets (a few bigger ones in NENSW) and a light/variable flow in NENSW as a trough tickled the region, more NW-N north of the border, although variable winds are expected to become widespread north of the border, with a light SE-E flow south of the Tweed-Byron region.

Some good waves around away from the NE breeze

This weekend (Jan 20-21)

Not much change to the weekend f/cast. A compact low is tracking SE away from Tasmania with a nice slingshot fetch in the process of entering the Tasman adjacent to the Apple Isle. A retrograding fetch in the South Pacific is currently active and expected to send some fun surf our way over the weekend and into early next week.

Small mixed bag for Sat, with small S swells in NENSW to 2 occ. 3ft at S facing beaches (tiny in QLD) and small E swell which will perk up a notch in the a’noon as the next pulse of E swell makes landfall likely after lunch and throw down some 2-3ft sets. Winds look OK- SW-S early tending mod S/SE across most of the region (lighter on the Sunshine Coast) before laying down to light/variable seabreezes in the a’noon.

Sunday sees a similar mixed bag with S swell to 2-3ft in NENSW- not offering much in SEQLD. We will see a stronger E swell signal in the 3-4ft range (poss some bigger sets on the Gold Coast swell magnets like Outside Snapper and the break walls). Get in early for variable land breezes before winds tend N’ly to NE’ly in the a’noon.

Next week (Jan 22 onwards)

The new high moving in from below the Island continent and an angled trough now looks like providing a much stronger S’ly flow into early next week, with the fetch extending along the South Coast into the lower Tasman. A S’ly change from this system looks to arrive across the North Coast Mon morning, reaching the border around lunchtime. Clean E/NE swell to 3-4ft will be on offer before the change with clean surf on the Points after the change.

 As modelled we’re on track for a fast rising spike in S swell through late Mon (on the MNC) into Tues- likely into the  3-5ft range- under fresh S’ly to S/SE’ly winds.  The firm high pressure ridge will hold S-S/SE tending SE winds at moderate/fresh strength so you’ll need to seek shelter for clean conditions.

Looking into mid week and all eyes on the Coral Sea where a tropical cyclone is expected to be slow moving. Uncertainty over track remains high with GFS favouring a slide down the sub-tropical ridge to the SE while EC is favouring a coastal crossing on the NQLD coast. It’s highly likely under current modelling we will see some level of strong swell from the E/NE from mid next week. The range of outcomes remains very large however with size ranges from 4-6ft right up to 8-10ft or bigger still on the table depending on the cyclone strength, position and speed and direction of movement. Pencil in a few solid days on the Points Thurs-Sat and keep tabs on the comments over the weekend as we update with real-time data.

Low confidence of course due to the unpredictable nature of cyclones so expect revisions on Mon- possibly major.

Until then, have a great weekend!