South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Jan 1st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Workable E/SE swell Mon-Wed with E tending SE winds (more E-E/NE on the MNC)
• Building short range S-S/SE swells Fri
• Trick weekend outlook, likely small SE swells continue
• Tricky outlook continues into next week with SE swells possible and a larger S-S/SE swell later next week if low forms off Tasmania
• Check back Wed for latest updates and revisions

Recap

Not a noteworthy weekend to see out 2023- Sat saw some small leftover E and S swell to 2ft with clean morning conditions under variable winds offering up a grovel for the keen. There was a small increase in S swell Sun (only really showing in NENSW) which offered up some more 1-2ft surf with clean conditions before winds freshened from the SE during the a’noon.   Onshore SE-E to bring in 2024 with small but building E-E/SE swells to 2-3ft for the keen beans ready to get off the mark for the New Year. Happy New year all.

Wasn't quite pumping New Years Eve- didn't stop people paddling out for a go

This week (Jan 1-5)

We’ve got a moderate strength high pressure cell (1025hPa) in the Tasman, connected to a high pressure belt under the continent, directing NE winds in Central/Southern NSW, more E-SE in the sub-tropics where a broad troughy area is directing a stronger onshore flow and whipping up local swells from that direction. 

We should see building swells from the E/SE ahead for the short run in the f/cast region. Mod/fresh SE-E/SE winds through Tues , tending more S/SE-SE Wed across the Northern parts of the region(more E-E/NE south of Yamba) with lighter SW-S winds inshore early, more likely Wed. Surf should hold in the 2-3ft range Tues, bigger 3ft in NENSW where the fetch is more directly aimed, with a small bump in size Wed to 3ft across the region. Small point surf and a few options at semi-protected beachies will be on offer. 

We’ll see a change Thurs as a trough pushes E of Tasmania and a front passes below the Island state. Expect a NW tending NE flow through the morning (more SE north of the border) before the trough brings a vigorous S tending S/SE flow to the MNC during the late a’noon. Small fun 2ft surf through Thurs from the E.

Building short range S-S/SE swells through Fri across the MNC to North Coast, possibly just reaching SEQLD late in the day depending on the timing of the change , with mod/fresh winds from the same direction. Expect 2ft surf through SEQLD, with surf building in the a’noon across the MNC to North Coast to 3ft - possibly 3-4ft south of Yamba- by close of play. Some of this increase may just sneak north of the border, but we’ll fine tune that on Wed. 

This weekend (Jan 6-7)

Models are offering divergent scenarios leading into this weekend with EC suggesting the trough in the Tasman will deepen and move north into the Central/Northern Tasman, possibly as a closed surface low. Which would see moderate S/SE tending SE swells over the weekend under a S’ly tending SE flow across the weekend.

GFS has a much more subdued take with the trough dissipating and a weaker onshore flow. Under this scenario we’d see small swells from the SE to 2ft Sat, easing during the day and smaller leftovers Sun to 1-2ft.

Neither scenario is too froth-worthy at this stage although EC has certainly got more size and juice but we’ll see how it looks Wed. There’ll be a rideable wave of some description. 

Next week (Jan 8 onwards)

Model variance continues into next week so confidence is low on the outlook. EC maintains the trough and supporting high pressure in the Tasman, with workable SE swells and SE winds through Mon. It suggests a slow Southwards movement of the trough with winds shifting more S/SE from Tues and workable swells tending more S/SE in this period. 

GFS suggests a more typical high pressure in the Tasman and E tending NE flow through Mon and Tues with a new trough deepening off the Tasmanian or Gippsland Coast Tues bringing a stiff S’ly change late Tues or o/night into Wed.

A deep low is then expected to form (under this scenario) with gales off Tasmania into Wed and new S swell propagating northwards during late Wed or Thurs, potentially with some real size to it.

We’ll flag these scenarios for now and see how they look on Wed. We are due for a more substantial Tasman Sea swell after a fairly lacklustre period.

Check back Wed for the latest.