South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 6th Dec)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small, weak surf continues this week
• Small bump in E/NE swell Fri PM for SEQLD
• Building E-E/NE cyclone associated swells over the weekend- solid Sat PM and Sun with onshore E’ly winds
• Solid E’ly swells into Mon, although easing as TC Jasper approaches NQ coast
• Small E’ly swell Tues/Wed with continuing onshore winds
• Back to small, weak surf from mid next week

Recap

Not much surf since Mon with small 1-1.5ft waves on offer, clean in the mornings. Today has seen similar size with winds now kicking up from the N/NE south of the border, remaining light/variable in SEQLD.

Recap

Small mixed bag yesterday of leftover S/SE swells and some small NE swell in the a’noon under NE winds. Conditions were clean early with mostly 2ft surf, a few bigger 2-3ft waves on the Hunter. A S’ly change today has made most beaches wind affected with a few small 1-2ft waves on offer for the keen at protected spots. 

This week (Dec 6-8)

We’ve still got weak high pressure in the Tasman with a trough quickly dissipating and a N’ly flow returning for the rest of the week. TC Jasper has formed in water surrounding the Solomon Islands and is intensifying under favourable conditions. Most models now are suggesting a SW-W curvature as it enters the Coral Sea, with a smaller surf potential compared to Mondays notes as it crosses the coast instead of tracking through the Coral Sea. The troughy pattern we’ve seen since early November continues, with surf potential continuing to favour Southern NSW. Read on for details.

In the short run we’ll see the current wind regime continue with light/variable flow tomorrow (land breezes early) tending to light E/NE-NE seabreezes in the a’noon. Keep the grovellers handy- just a small signal of minor short range S swell and background E swell to 1-1.5ft at best. 

N’lies then freshen through Fri in NENSW with lighter winds in SEQLD.  Tiny surf expected through the morning- 1-1.5ft at best on the magnets. We may see a small, late increase in new E/NE swell on the Sunshine Coast to 2-3ft, but Sat is a better bet.

This weekend (Dec 9-10)

By Sat morning Jasper is expected to be a severe TC (Cat 3 or above) drifting towards the N.QLD coastline. The majority of the swell generating winds are the E’ly windfield surrounding Jasper and extending from south of New Caledonia back across the entire Coral Sea. This fetch will see surf build from the E/NE Sat, likely from 2-3ft up to 5-6ft during the day- a notch bigger on the Sunshine Coast. Winds won’t be great with a straight onshore E-E/NE flow, tending more NE into NSW but they should be light enough to offer workable waves on the Points and some raggedy beachies for those with good paddling arms. We may still see stronger and longer period E/NE swell depending on the track of Jasper, potentially offering up 8ft surf for those rare spots which are open to the swell and protected from the winds.

Surf holds into Sun, at similar sizes. Strong 6ft surf is expected with an E’ly flow, tending more NE in NSW. We may see lighter E’ly winds through Sun in SEQLD as the TC moves westwards. More than likely you’ll have to deal with some level of onshore winds.

Next week (Dec 11 onwards)

By Mon, TC Jasper, under current modelling, looks to approach the NQ coast with the E’ly windfield also contracting westwards. Still plenty of size for the start of the week, likely in the 4-6ft range but with an easing trend in play and continuing E’ly quadrant winds, more NE south of Tweed-Byron.

By Tues a crossing is expected and we’ll see that easing trend become more pronounced, with surf dropping back to 3-4ft, down to 3ft at close of play.

Further easing through Wed with some fun beachies on offer and 2-3ft surf.

No change to the wind pattern. Typically, cyclones crossing the NQ coast leave a residual E/NE-NE flow and that appears the most likely outcome here.

Winds looks to increase from the NE later next week.

 After this swell associated with TC Jasper it looks like we’re back to small weak swells, although we’ll be watching later next week for another trough forming off the South Coast which may have some surf potential. Check back Fri to see how it’s shaping up.

Seeya Fri.