South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 3rd Nov)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Not much over the weekend, a few small beachies best Sat morning, tending to weak E-NE windswells Sun
• NE winds over the weekend, tending E’ly on Sun as new high pressure moves into Tasman
• Small to start next week, junky, but workable E’ly swell for the most part as slow moving high occupies Tasman
• Better quality distant E’ly tradewind swell Wed/Thurs, very slow and inconsistent
• Continuing E’ly trade-wind swells into next weekend under blocking high pattern

Recap

Residual E/SE swells provided some 3-4ft sets yesterday, easing through the day with some small S/SE swells adding a small amount of energy in NENSW. Conditions were glassy/lumpy under a lingering light onshore flow.  Size has eased right back today with just some small 2 occ 3ft S swell at S facing beasches in NENSW and a smaller mixed bag to 2ft in SEQLD. Light winds provided clean conditions before a light Nor-easter kicked up.

S-S/SE swells favoured NENSW with clean morning conditions

This weekend (Nov 4-5)

We’ve got some more clarity now on how the unstable, troughy pattern will resolve over the weekend. Generally speaking, winds look light now on Sat, tending to light/mod NE’lies through the day with morning land breezes likely.  Surf-wise, there’ll just be a small signal of leftover S/SE swell in the water throwing up a few 2+ footers in NENSW, smaller 1-2ft across open beaches in SEQLD. 

Onshore E’ly winds increase on Sun a’noon as the large high moving through the Bight starts to enter the Tasman and builds a ridge up the coast, feeding into the inland troughs. We should see a light land breeze in the morning (brief and NW) before winds tend NE then clock around to the E. Nothing much to see here surf-wise, just a weak 1-1.5ft signal of small E’ly swells. 

Next week (Nov 6 onwards)

We’ll see that onshore flow through most or all of the working week under present modelling as the slow moving high occupies the Tasman- although it does weaken through the early part of next week.

Along with the small troughy area hovering about the North Coast we should see light winds Mon and  Tues. Likely morning land breezes tending to weak E-E/SE a’noon breezes.

The small localised E swells looks to hold in the 1-1.5ft range Mon, likely just starting to perk up a bit Tues- not exceeding 2ft though.

That weak E’ly swell looks to be persistent under the slow moving pattern with high pressure drifting towards New Zealand. We should see a small uptick in size through the second half of next week. Nothing major but up into the 2-3ft range by Fri. Adding some long range E’ly swell will be a distant tradewind fetch bolstered by a tropical low this weekend in Tongan latitudes. That will add some very inconsistent 2-3ft sets likely Wed-Fri. Don’t expect too much from this swell source- it’ll be very slow.

Through this period tradewinds start to fill out the South Pacific slot between New Caledonia and the North Island. This will favour sub-tropical regions for E swell  and add to the E’ly swell likely by Fri and extending into next weekend.

Onshore winds continue through  this period- tracking around E’ly then E/NE’ly and NE’ly by next weekend so keep your expectations for surf quality firmly pegged on the low end of the scale.

The trade flow is enhanced by another tropical development linked to a Westerly wind burst (WWB) extending from PNG longitudes into Fijian areas. This WWB is creating a long, angled trough through the South Pacific Convergence Zone and squeezing onto the large high as it moves slowly in New Zealand longitudes. At the moment there’s no indication of cyclogenesis in the trough line but we’ll keep watching and report back Mon. For now, modest amounts of tradewind swell filtering down from the South Pacific slot looks like the most likely outcome with a continuing E-NE flow.

We’ll see how it looks on Mon.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!