** Wednesday's update has been postponed to tomorrow, thanks to Steve covering the Bells event

Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Apr 1st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Building N/NE windswell Tues with winds tending offshore then fresh SW
• Spike in S swell later Tues, peaking Wed
• S swell remains surfable later next week
• Chunky E/NE swell Sat/Sun as low drifts down from Northern Tasman, possibly persisting early next week

Recap

Minor levels of S swell - tiny to flat really- over the Easter weekend and continuing into today. Sat was the biggest of it with a few 1-2ft sets at S facing beaches. 

This week and next week (Apr1 - Apr12)

We have a weak high in the Tasman which has been responsible for light winds and settled conditions over Easter. That will change mid-week as a much more dynamic pattern unfolds. A complex inland trough low tied to tropical sources exits the coast as a strong high moves into the Bight. Following that a coastal trough in the Northern Tasman then deepens, likely into a surface low which may drift southwards bringing E/NE swells to the Island, possibly followed by a return S swell as the low gets captured by an approaching front. Details below. 

In the short run we’ll see workable NE windswell tomorrow morning from a strengthening NE fetch o/night as a front/low approach. Expect 2-3ft surf in the mornings with winds swinging offshore then fresh SW-S later in the day as the low moves off and the front passes over.

That will produce a sharp spike in S swell for Wed with size to 3ft at S facing beaches under SW tending S/SW winds. Expect size to ease in the a’noon.

By Thurs we’ll see a couple of days of small weak, S swells. Small leftovers to 1-2ft Thurs with a slight bump in S swell wrap Fri to 2ft. Winds should be light and variable Thurs tending more NE on Fri.

Into the weekend and expect revisions on size, timing and most importantly local winds this week so stay tuned but the broad pattern has good model agreement leading to increased confidence.

By Sat morning we should see a surface low hugging the coast and tracking southwards down the NSW (see below). A broad infeed across SE and NE quarters of the low will see a range of swells trains incoming over the weekend, with plenty of size expected. 

Plenty of E/NE swell expected this weekend as low drifts down the NSW coast

As the low tracks south we’ll see winds shift from NE to S.

Expect surf to build Sat from 2-3ft into the 3-4ft range.

Further size is expected Sun, up into the 5-6ft range .

Model divergence kicks in early next week with GFS suggesting a stalled trough line and continuing E’ly infeed across a very broad fetch suggesting a couple of  fun days of E/NE’ly swell early next week with offshore winds possible.

EC has the E’ly fetch retreating into the South Pacific with smaller, but still fun E swell.

Both models have been favouring an outcome where the low remnants get picked up a cold front and a return S swell is generated mid next week. 

With so much dynamism at play, expect revisions through the week.

Check back Wed for the latest.