Super Typhoon Neoguri erupts: Waves up to sixty feet heading towards Japan

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Analysis

On the 11th July 2013 Swellnet wrote an article about Super Typhoon Soulik which formed near Guam and stormed towards northern Taiwan. Soulik brought widespread destruction and large swells. At the time we were astounded at the size of the seas it generated: some readings came in at 10 metres at 16 seconds. Impressive numbers by any account.

Now, almost a year to the day later, a much larger and stronger Super Typhoon (named Neoguri) is currently moving through the Western Pacific, on track to cross the Ryukyu Islands and enter the East China Sea this evening. And the readings Neoguri is generating far exceed anything Super Typhoon Soulik produced.

At Neoguri's peak yesterday, sustained wind speeds were around 145 knots (269 km/h) with gusts up to an unprecedented 175 knots (324 km/h). While this morning Swellnet's forecast model for Okinawa, an island at the southern end of the Ryukyu chain, registered an amazing 18.6 metres at 16.8 seconds. The open ocean readings topped out at 23.7 metres. Check our WAMs image to the right, this is the largest storm anyone in the Swellnet office has seen.

Such are the movement of these typhoons, this will be a one day event with much more 'subdued' swell due through tomorrow, downwards from 7.9 metres at 12 seconds.

Neoguri is forecast to weaken rapidly once it moves into the East China Sea before tracking up and past Japan's East Coast, following the Kuroshio Current before heading off towards Russia. As it does so most locations across Japan's east and south facing shores should see fun surf from the remnants of Neoguri. We'll keep you posted on any images or videos that surface from this swell.

Follow Super Typhoon Neoguri on the Swellnet WAMs.

Comments

wellymon's picture
wellymon's picture
wellymon Tuesday, 8 Jul 2014 at 1:57pm

Sexy WAM, how low was the pressure!
Still alive Zenagain...?

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Tuesday, 8 Jul 2014 at 2:02pm

Ol' Zen is at the other end of Japan. Don't think he'll see much of it - that right Zen?

This one is gonna send a lot of swell, no to mention wind, to the place BB visited last year. Hope everyone you know there is OK, BB.

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain Tuesday, 8 Jul 2014 at 2:16pm

Just got back from a surf-check.

Local reef clean, head high but a long wait between sets.

Got a meeting to go to then be in the water a couple of hours from now.

The swell is super south so that doesn't bode well for me size wise, around the corner in the northern Chiba it's 8ft+ and getting bigger.

Typhoon due to cross us on Thursday but by then it should have had the sting taken out of it's tail but they're still forecasting 50kt + winds and torrential rain in my area.

Okinawa is the place I'd rather not be atm, no doubt it will be all over the news tonight. Hope BB's mates fare well.

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain Tuesday, 8 Jul 2014 at 2:23pm

Funny, JMA have still only labelled this one 'Very Strong' in intensity. The one Craig wrote about last year was labelled 'Violent', which is obviously at the top of the scale.

Interesting.

Still, nothing beats Typhoon Wipha the one I sent photos in of last year. To this day, I have never seen a bigger swell with my own eyes.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 8 Jul 2014 at 2:29pm

Ah, that's because it's since weakened Zen.

With those wind speeds mentioned above it would of easily reached the Category 5 threshold for a Tropical Cyclone (sustained winds > 107kts and gusts >151kt) and been a Violent Storm.

Here's your images: https://www.swellnet.com/forums/wax/25901

blindboy's picture
blindboy's picture
blindboy Tuesday, 8 Jul 2014 at 2:30pm

Stu we are assuming at the moment that no news is good news. Our friends are pretty well set up and will board up the windows, put the goats in the garage and generally batten down. I will post whatever we hear.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Tuesday, 8 Jul 2014 at 2:42pm

Looks pretty from above.

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain Tuesday, 8 Jul 2014 at 2:45pm

Just got a phone call from a mate about an hour south. Not really happening there either, sets in the head to head and half range and a long wait between. Nice and clean though. I could drive north up to Fukushima where the coast bends and faces more into the south swell but when my reefie (Ibaraki trestles- you know the place Craig) is head high, peeling off and only 3 out in the water, why waste the fuel?

BB, all the best to your friends. Hope they stay safe.

mitchvg's picture
mitchvg's picture
mitchvg Tuesday, 8 Jul 2014 at 10:32pm

I've been to ibaraki. From memory, I had the best miso soup ever; my gf went to a pet cemetery; and surprised an oyaji who then spat his noodles out.

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain Tuesday, 8 Jul 2014 at 10:59pm

Ahhhh yes Mitch. Beautiful Ibaraki.

Mito City, the Paris of Japan;)

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 8 Jul 2014 at 2:47pm

Indeed I do Zen, wouldn't leave that if it were breaking with hardly anyone out. Go and get amonst it!

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Tuesday, 8 Jul 2014 at 3:20pm

Amazing storm factory that tropical north-west pacific ....if we only got a fraction of their storms

coopers's picture
coopers's picture
coopers Tuesday, 8 Jul 2014 at 5:13pm

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=730967723637552
Some video from yesterday in Okinawa

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Tuesday, 8 Jul 2014 at 5:18pm

sheeez, BWWT stuff.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 8 Jul 2014 at 5:21pm

That's insane, Japan's Cloudbreak!!!

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba Tuesday, 8 Jul 2014 at 5:49pm

fukin how big is that wave!!!!!

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Tuesday, 8 Jul 2014 at 5:49pm

That's an inspirational avatar you've got there Coopers. Impressive video too. Remember when Hawaii was the only legitimate big wave arena ? It's probably still the undisputed king but there are so many BIG waves out there...not that I ever want to encounter a proper BIG wave. Ten foot max for me thanks, and just between you and me that might be a little bit generous with the old poetic licence .

clif's picture
clif's picture
clif Tuesday, 8 Jul 2014 at 6:37pm

f$%^^$#%^&**^$E missing it. Had to go to Europe for a couple of weeks. Timing = impeccable. F!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

brutus's picture
brutus's picture
brutus Wednesday, 9 Jul 2014 at 12:48am

Wow ..I wonder what Nyodo Rivermouth is like??

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 9 Jul 2014 at 11:07am

Incredible images of Neoguri from Alexander Gerst on the International Space Station.

https://twitter.com/Astro_Alex

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Wednesday, 9 Jul 2014 at 11:38am

The eye is/was 65ks wide

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain Monday, 14 Jul 2014 at 2:37pm

I wish Craig.

Bit of a non-event up my way. Swell too south to give us anything meaningful.

Got a clean head-high sesh at local reef but super long period and very inconsistent.

Spent the last couple of days surfing a little breakwall up north a bit. Kinda like a reverse D-bah off the wall set-up. Fun but nothing to rave about. Water freezing again.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 14 Jul 2014 at 2:40pm

Ah bugger, you'd be glad to know I got some epic snow up at Thredbo over the weekend, one of the best years for ages people are talking.

Photos up on the site tomorrow, ps new board goes amazing especially in the powder!

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain Monday, 14 Jul 2014 at 2:46pm

Sweet man, that makes me really happy to hear that. Yeah, been following the Oz reports but when I checked that a day pass to Perisher was $124, it would really have to be epic.

If you're back here for snow (or a surf for that matter) you know where to find me. Looking forward to the pics.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 14 Jul 2014 at 2:52pm

If ya book early (1 week) it's $100 up Thredbo, but $124 is crazy isn't it, 1/3rd the price over your way.

And definitely back again early next year, will hit you up for sure.

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml Tuesday, 15 Jul 2014 at 11:03pm

Hey Craig theres a new swell bouy link its at mandurah wa with direction . Very interesting for swellbouy enthusiasts

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 16 Jul 2014 at 10:17am

Nice, yeah I think I spotted it on the website a couple of weeks ago. Get waves in over the weekend? Looked like the whole state was pumping!

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml Wednesday, 16 Jul 2014 at 8:37pm

Yeah Craig sat got a cuple and again this next high