Swellnet Dispatch Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului

In: Swellnet Dispatch by Stu Nettle 28 Comments Tue 16th Mar '10

Tags: severe weather , ului , Tropical Cyclone

Severe Tropical Cyclone (STC) Ului is currently positioned S/SW of Honiara in the Solomon Islands, approximately 1,300km to the NE of Mackay. STC Ului formed as a tropical depression just west of Vanuatu last Friday, and rapidly intensified to a category 5 cyclone during Sunday. This dynamic system is currently producing maximum sustained wind speeds of 130kts (241km/h) with gusts up to 160kts (296km/hr).

Due to STC Ului's large spatial coverage, the entire Coral Sea has fallen under its influence and the associated high seas are already affecting small island communities.

Current computer model predictions have STC Ului moving south during the next couple of days and weakening slightly, but remaining as a Severe Tropical Cyclone. From Friday onwards the leading global forecasting models diverge on the future path of Ului, with the European model (ECMWF) suggesting a coastal crossing between Rockhampton and Mackay. On the other hand, the American model (GFS) pushes STC Ului in a path towards Bundaberg, stalling the cyclone off Fraser Island.

Whichever way the computer models pan out, the Queensland coast is certainly on target to receive a exceptionally large swell event from the east to north-east, building Friday onwards and peaking over the weekend. Initial estimates indicate wave heights could reach well in excess of 15ft+ at exposed locations, with the possibility of even larger and more damaging waves if the cyclone does in fact push close to the mainland. If we were to experience a coastal crossing of STC Ului, potentially hazardous side effects would include storm surges, significant beach erosion and localised flooding.

While the Queensland and Northern NSW coasts are expected to receive the largest waves from this event, locations further south should see more manageable conditions with clean lines of north-east groundswell likely to reach as far as Tasmania's East Coast.

Keeping in mind the varying model predictions for STC Ului, there's still plenty of room for movement regarding the predicted swell size and direction across the entire eastern seaboard. Check back over the coming days for the latest updates. // CRAIG BROKENSHA

Loading Comments