Swellnet Dispatch Tahiti Red Alert!

In: Swellnet Dispatch by Craig Brokensha 15 Comments Tue 9th Mar '10

Tags: swell forecasting , Teahupoo , Large Swell

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Margaret River or Teahupoo?

Valuable 'QS points or incredible tropical pits?

With the Quiksilver Pro all wrapped up and three weeks until the Rip Curl Pro, World Tour surfers - at least those who have the cajones - have a decision to make; chase the points at the Drug Aware Pro or chase the biggest swell to hit Chopes in many months.

Next week Teahupoo is expected to receive a series of very strong groundswells. The catalyst for the development of these swells will be the amplification of the upper level Long Wave Trough just to the east of of New Zealand.

This upper level feature is basically a pronounced region of cold air in the upper atmosphere, and will effectively steer any cold fronts developing in the Southern Ocean up along the East Coast of New Zealand and right into Teahupoo's prime swell window.

This will be the case during this weekend and into early next week, with a strong frontal progression predicted to push up along New Zealand's East Coast generating winds in the 30-40 knot+ range with the help of a strong ridging high in the Tasman Sea. Each front will be appear to 'sling-shot' up from the south off a far broader area of low pressure to the east of New Zealand.

Due to the system as a whole pushing up closer to Tahiti than usual we can expect more consistency in the sets as they arrive. The longevity of this swell is what makes the outlook exciting with the progression of at least four frontal systems resulting in an episode of large swell lasting for at least five to six days. The sou-west direction is also the optimum direction for Chopes' fearsome end bowl.

The first swell should arrive arrive on Tuesday (Tahitian time), but the real juicy stuff looks to push in a couple of days later on Thursday with sets in the 15-18 foot range. At this stage local winds appear to be E-NE which is offshore.

It should be noted that there is a solid southerly groundswell set to hit Tahiti this coming Saturday (Tahitian time) in the 10ft range, but the real action begins next week. Here's hoping that some of the surfers make the dash to Chopes with cameramen in tow. //CRAIG BROKENSHA

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