Swellnet Dispatch North Pacific swell poses the question: Will Eddie go?

In: Swellnet Dispatch by Craig Brokensha 47 Comments Tue 15th Jan '13

Tags: waimea , eddie aikau , hawaii , Quiksilver

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When Jaws on Maui broke in early October hopes were high for a stellar Hawaiian season. Since that session, however, there's only been a couple of notable swell events none of which approached the size or intensity of that early season swell.

Well, the big wave drought is about to break as an oversized west-northwest groundswell bears down on the Hawaiian Islands.

The source of this swell is a 'bombing' low pressure system off the Japanese coast ('bombing' is a term used when the central surface pressure drops by more than 24hPa in a 24 hour period). Wind speeds around the core of the low have already been clocked at 60kts by satellites, but a further intensification today should result in winds reaching hurricane force, or 70-75kts. While wind strengths within the severe storm are phenomenal for a cold core (non tropical) system, it's the east-northeast movement towards Hawaii while retaining its intensity that will generate this oversized groundswell.

Will this be the swell to kick the Eddie Aikau Quiksilver Big Wave Invitational into gear after a three year hiatus? This question can be answered in two parts, the first relating to the swell size and direction, while the second revolves around the local winds and conditions.

The perfect swell direction for Waimea Bay under a long-period groundswell is from the west-northwest. When long-period swells arrive from this direction, their size isn't affected by the deep water reefs of Outer Log Cabins to the north. Additionally, swells with too much west will fall within the wave shadow of Kauai.

The direction of this swell is ideal, however the size may just fall on the wrong side of the required 20 foot+ to get the Eddie underway. Veteran North Shore surfers have a rule of thumb that storms have to push east of the International Date Line to produce a genuine 25-20 foot swell and the storm will fall just short of this, stalling some 1,000km to the west of the date line. In saying this the sheer strength of the wind and magnitude of the low should, by our estimates, still produce a 20 foot+ groundswell for Friday Hawaii time (Saturday Australian time).

The other issue that organisers of the Eddie will be watching closely are the local winds. At this stage they're expected to be cross-shore from the north-northeast as a frontal system extends across the Hawaiian Islands. Some Waimea Bay surfers prefer the wind to be light onshore as it provides small chops and bumps they can use to project themselves into the waves earlier than normal. This only works up to a point, if the onshore wind gets too strong the wave at Waimea simply loses its shape. The cut off point is around 15-20 knots, which is the predicted wind strength for Friday.

With the storm and local winds not likely to change much over the next couple of days the job of assessing the conditions and making the call now falls squarely onto the organisers of the Eddie Aikau. Stay tuned for further details. //CRAIG BROKENSHA

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