Swellnet Dispatch First Tropical Cyclone on the Charts

In: Swellnet Dispatch by Craig Brokensha 146 Comments Tue 11th Dec '12

Tags: forecast , fiji , evan , Tropical Cyclone , TC

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It's been a long, drawn out spring across the Gold Coast, made worse by persistent northerly winds and weak, junky windswells. Aside from a short reprieve during the second week of November, there's been nothing of substance with surfers travelling south of the border faring the best.

This has changed for the better heading into this week, with the first trade-swell of the season slowly muscling up across the region over the coming days. We don't want to count our chickens before they've hatched but the next egg rolling down the chute behind the trade-swell is of more interest as it may become the first Tropical Cyclone of the season.

On the back of a relatively poor cyclone season earlier in the year, it's welcoming to see the first signs of tropical activity forming in the Fiji region. Tropical Depression 04F is currently only a weak convective weather system with a slight but broad rotation. It is, however, forecast to slowly intensify over the coming 24-48 hours, while drifting towards Samoa before being steered back into the Fiji region during the weekend. With sea surface temperatures being well above the 26 degree threshold needed for cyclone formation, and the upper atmosphere winds being relatively subdued, the likelihood of a Tropical Cyclone forming is very high.

If this Tropical Cyclone forms it will be named Evan by the Nadi-Tropical Cyclone Centre, Fiji, and it is forecast by most of the leading global forecast models to move into South-East Queensland's and New South Wales' swell window early next week. As touched on above, this is a long way down the track but if Tropical Cyclone Evan does form as currently predicted the long-range Easterly groundswell generated by the cyclone is expected to arrive later next week.

We'll keep an eye on the developments of Tropical Depression 04F over the next week and provide regular updates, but you can also track how this system is developing through our South East Queensland Weather Charts. //CRAIG BROKENSHA

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