Swellnet Dispatch Billabong Pipe Masters: Early Forecast

In: Swellnet Dispatch by Craig Brokensha 80 Comments Tue 4th Dec '12

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It's been a long month between World Tour events, especially with the World Title hanging in the balance and all sorts of possibilities about the looming clash being played out across the internet. Will Parko finally shed his bridesmaid tag? Will Slater go out on a high?

Speculation aside it's safe to say that the bigger the swell is at Pipe the harder Parko's task will be. His main threat through the early rounds are the wildcards, Pipe specialists who thrive on genuine size and have an advantage over him if it's big. If it's not, and the swell is small to mid-size, then the chips fall Parko's way as the wildcards' advantage is negated.

So, which will it be...?

We're now less than a week away from the start of the Billabong Pipe Masters and there's swell on the way. We expect proceedings will kick off on the second day of the waiting period this Sunday, however before we get to size there are a few pertinent points that need to be covered.

Over the past few weeks northerly swells have been pushing down from the Aleutians with no serious groundswells since an early season Jaws session in October. The October swell began to clear the sand off the Pipeline reef that builds up over Summer and can cause the wave to close out. Unfortunately the recent run of northerly swells has begun to push the dreaded sand back into place.

The swell that's expected to arrive for the second day of the Pipeline waiting period will be from the west-northwest and should peak at 6-8 feet. The size and direction of the swell should start to clear away the sand build up, but the end section is likely to be closing out early in the piece. Also Backdoor will be a less likely proposition meaning Parko and Slater may have to hone their backside tube-riding skills on Pipe's lefts.

Does that fit Parko's gameplan, or does it favour Slater? Perhaps it's the wildcards who'll see the most benefit? At this, mid-size Pipe, none of the players appear to have a clear cut advantage. Let the speculation continue...

The swell in question will be generated in the North-western Pacific Ocean over the next few days as a low spinning off from Japan deepens into a broader swell-producing system during the next few days while tracking towards Hawaii. As the storm approaches the islands it is forecast to retract back to the north resulting in the swell swinging more north-west into day three while easing.

Beyond that the Pacific Ocean looks as if it will die down through the weekend, resulting in a few small days through next week ahead of a possible renewal of NW swell energy the following weekend. We'll provide another update on Swellnet in the coming days so keep an eye out. //CRAIG BROKENSHA

**For the most recent forecast update check my comments below** 

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