Swellnet Dispatch East Coast Low On Target For New South Wales

In: Swellnet Dispatch by Ben Matson 44 Comments Wed 30th May '12

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The opening week of winter is set to kick off with a bang in New South Wales, thanks to a deepening trough along the East Coast that's expected to develop an East Coast Low (ECL).

East Coast Lows are powerful low pressure systems that develop rapidly in the Tasman Sea close to the East Coast, usually associated with a deepening surface trough and a cold pool of air in the upper levels of the atmosphere. These weather systems drive gale force onshore winds, heavy rain and large swells across broad areas of the coastal region.

The last few years have been somewhat sporadic on the ECL front. However, five ECLs occurred during June 2007, the first of which memorably grounded the 76,000 tonne bulk ore carrier Pasha Bulker on Newcastle Beach.

Current expectations are that we'll see the trough deepening on Sunday with the ECL starting to develop sometime around Monday and persisting into Tuesday. At this stage many parts of the southern NSW coast are on target to see gale force onshore winds and very large storm swells in excess of 10-12ft.

However, there will be a point somewhere along the NSW coast at which these onshore winds will rotate around the axis of the low, swinging offshore in direction. Finding this axis point (and aiming north of it) will be the key to scoring the best waves from this event.

Right now, the various computer models have a wide range of possible locations of this axis - anywhere between the South Coast and the Mid North Coast - so let's wait a few more days before pinning down specifics.

In any case, it's also quite likely that we'll see a range of novelty surf locations come to life closer to Sydney during this time frame, such as sheltered points and inner harbour haunts that may well produce some rare quirky waves.

To look at the swell model forecasts for this event, click here. Otherwise, check out our detailed forecast notes here where Craig will provide the latest information about this swell event. //BEN MATSON

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