Swellnet Dispatch Large Swells Loom for Volcom Fiji Pro

In: Swellnet Dispatch by Craig Brokensha 366 Comments Tue 29th May '12

Tags: forecast , fiji , volcom , brokensha , cloudbreak , restaurants

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The Volcom Fiji Pro is only six days away, so we can now have more confidence on when the competition may run and in what kinds of surf conditions.

The good news is that we're expecting two significant swell events within the waiting period, the second of which could end up delivering some very large waves at Cloudbreak.

While a series of moderate south-west swells later this week will provide ideal conditions for competitors to warm-up in, a bigger long-range groundswell is expected to arrive the afternoon before competition kicks off.

This swell is developing south and east of Tasmania today, and should peak on Sunday morning – the first day of the waiting period – with 6-8ft sets at Cloudbreak. The large travel distance between the swell source and Fiji will result in long lulls between sets, however conditions should be clean with favourable east-southeast winds.

From Sunday, the swell is then expected to slowly ease throughout most of the following week, courtesy of a temporary blocking pattern across Fiji's swell window. A small pulse of distant groundswell is due on Thursday but no great size is expected. Winds are expected to tend more towards the north-east during next week but should remain light in strength.

While all of this is happening early next week, the Long Wave Trough is modeled to amplify over New Zealand. This is expected to project a series of vigorous frontal systems from the Southern Ocean up through the southern Tasman Sea. As mentioned in the early forecast this is the ideal synoptic setup required to produce large swell events in Fiji.

As such, we are now anticipating a large SW groundswell arriving next weekend, that could very well produce 8-10ft surf at Cloudbreak. The current ETA of this swell is sometime in and around next Saturday – day seven of the waiting period – leaving plenty of time for the remainder of the competition to play out as the swell subsides into the following week.

The only other point of interest in the longer term is a deepening surface trough expected along the East Coast of Australia later this weekend. This may develop a low pressure system in the Tasman Sea early next week.

The timing of this surface trough/low and the amplifying Long Wave Trough over New Zealand may have several implications – one of which could be to supercharge the overall fetch in the Tasman Sea aimed towards Fiji, resulting in even bigger waves at Cloudbreak the following weekend. This is however quite a long shot and will require close monitoring over the coming week.

So, the Swellnet tip is for the event to kick off on Day 1, and possibly run on Day 2, ahead of three or four lay days before recommencing the following weekend with the arrival of the next large swell.

We'll keep a close eye on all of these developments and will update the Fiji outlook more comprehensively later this week. //CRAIG BROKENSHA

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