Swellnet Dispatch Volcom Fiji Pro Early Forecast

In: Swellnet Dispatch by Craig Brokensha 105 Comments Thu 24th May '12

Tags: forecast , fiji , volcom , brokensha

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It's been four long years since the ASP World Tour last ventured to Fiji but in a week and a half's time the spotlight will again be on the barreling lefts of Cloudbreak. It's still quite some time away from a forecasting perspective, but there are some early indications as to the trends during the first half of the waiting period.

The ideal swell setup for Fiji usually originates from a passage of strong cold fronts extending from the Southern Ocean through the Tasman Sea. This often creates broad areas of south-westerly gales, which in turn generates long period south-westerly swells.

In forecasting parlance, the upper level weather systems are responsible for steering these surface patterns into place, and they're a key indicator that we try and identify at long range. Ideally, we want the Long Wave Trough to stall and amplify over New Zealand, as this anchoring pattern can active Fiji's swell window for a week or more at a time with large swells.

A weak version of this setup is forecast to develop early next week which should generate a series of moderate, overlapping SW groundswells.

However, most of these swells are expected to arrive and peak before the competition waiting period gets underway next Sunday, providing great warm-up surf. Size wise, Cloudbreak should see wave heights peaking in the 6-8ft range during this time frame - easing slowly during the first few days of competition - and winds may initially be gusty from the south-east thanks to a building ridge of high pressure across the Tasman Sea. Winds should then ease into the following week.

Further pulses of distant groundswell originating from frontal activity below Australia will maintain plenty of surfable waves at Cloudbreak during the first half of the waiting period however the ridge across the Tasman will keep a lid on any major size.

So while it doesn't look as if we'll reach the lofty heights of the 2005 Globe Pro Fiji, which saw 12ft+ bombs at Cloudbreak and perfect 6ft+ surf at Restaurants, it still looks like there'll still be plenty of waves to work around.

We'll provide another update early next week which will have a more detailed outlook for the entire waiting period. // CRAIG BROKENSHA

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