Billabong Pro Teahupoo Teahupoo Forecast: The Lemon Next to the Pie

In: Billabong Pro Teahupoo by Stu Nettle 42 Comments Tue 23rd Aug '11

Tags: billabong pro teahupoo , tahiti , surf forecasting

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"That's just the lemon next to the pie. It's gonna get bigger."

OK, as you've no doubt seen Billabong hit the ground running at Teahupoo by finishing Round 1 on the first day of the waiting period. That decision, we assume, was to harness media momentum and iron out any webcasting bugs - a pragmatic move reinforced by the two subsequent laydays that had similar sized waves.

For the next three days the swell at Teahupoo should persist at the same size – 4-6 feet. The first serious pulse of swell is expected to build through day six (Thursday local time, Friday Australian) of the waiting period with sets reaching 6-8 foot+ in the afternoon. Conditions may be a little tricky with a moderate to fresh east-southeast tradewind blowing across the wave. This swell should persist through day seven at the same size with winds tending straighter offshore from the east.

All the talk, however, is of what's coming behind that swell. In our last instalment we mentioned a series of stepladder swells – each one being larger than the one preceding it. Well, day eight looks like being the top rung of the ladder.

This swell will be generated by a very strong Southern Ocean storm forming south of New Zealand tonight. The storm should track east-northeast over an already active sea state, generating winds in the storm-force range (48-55kts) for a period of nearly 24 hours, setting in motion a large and powerful long-period groundswell.

We originally forecast 8-10 foot + waves but since then there's been a slight adjustment upwards, so rather than tone it down – which would be typical – we've revised the forecast up. Therefore, on Saturday Teahupoo should see 10-12 foot waves with the odd 15 foot bomb. The large distance between the storm and Tahiti - some 3,500 kilometres - will result in the bigger set waves being fairly inconsistent. Near-perfect wind conditions are expected with moderate easterly trades.

Our guess is that that with 2 ½ days to go they'll run the contest on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Of course anything is possible but with good conditions forecast, the surfers' representative (Kieren Perrow) being a known charger, and the entire webcast world praying for thundering Chopes then those days appear good money.

Now that the forecast is locked in it's worth revisiting the term 'inconsistent'. In the context used above it sounds unfavourable, and it may mean there are slow periods during the swell, yet it may also be this aspect that allows the comp to run on Saturday. Between the very large inconsistent, and perhaps only towable, waves will be 'smaller' paddleable sets of around 10-12 feet. As you process that information spare a thought for competitors (assuming they run the competition on that day) sitting inside trying to paddle into 10 foot Teahupoo whilst keeping the keenest of eyes on any dark lumps appearing out the back.

Our advice to competitors? Don't blink, just go.
Our advice to everyone in webcast world? Top up your bandwidth now.

//CRAIG 'BEAR' BROKENSHA & STU NETTLE

(Read The Outsider's latest instalment)

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