Billabong Pro Teahupoo Teahupoo Forecast: How Big?

In: Billabong Pro Teahupoo by Stu Nettle 11 Comments Fri 19th Aug '11

Tags: billabong pro teahupoo , tahiti , surf forecasting

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It's Friday the 19th August, one day before the waiting period of the Billabong Pro begins. The surfers have all winged their way to French Polynesia while the first swell is currently working it's way up the South Pacific toward Tahiti Iti.

It's lights, cameras, and very nearly, action.

As was mentioned in both our earlier forecasts this year will be the year the swell drought breaks. Nothing has changed since those reports were issued but we do have more specific sizes and arrival dates of the swells.

The first five days of the waiting period will see varying pulses of swell between 4 and 6 feet at Teahupoo. These would be considered marquee days in any Billabong Pro of the last five years, however the organisers will have to stare these days down because the forecast gets better. We have it on good authority that sitting out those days is exactly what they are planning to do.

The contest laydays will be ideal training for the surfers and they are going to need it. A series of strong cold fronts are moving in succession from below New Zealand up toward Tahiti. Each successive cold front will work on the active sea state generated by the winds before it, the result being a series of 'stepladder' swells – each one larger than the last.

On days 6 and 7 a strong S-SW swell measuring at least 8 feet – in other words, real Teahupoo – will make landfall. The swell following that has the likelihood of being significantly bigger – say 8-10 foot+.

The winds during the early part of the period will be variable with a trade wind flow establishing itself around day 6 when the first solid swell hits. Localised storms may still pass through yet offshore ESE trades will be the dominant winds.

Now that we are assured the contest will run in size it's time to start thinking who the favourites are. The stocks of wildcard local, Heiraii Williams, have risen considerably as he has the most experience in solid Teahupoo. Cory Lopez, who is standing in for Dane Reynolds, is another proven performer. Besides making the channel on two big ones, no further strategy is required. Of course, you've gotta throw yourself over the ledge for that to happen and we know Lopez will.

Slater, as always, is a threat, and riding exclusively on a quad will fuel further interest in his heats. The Outsider had a session at perfect 4-6 foot Teahupoo yesterday and reported Ace Buchan and Kieren Perrow shining. No surprises there, but they'll all need as much confidence as they can muster.

Bring it on... //CRAIG BROKENSHA & STU NETTLE

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