Billabong Pro Teahupoo Teahupoo Forecast: The drought is about to break

In: Billabong Pro Teahupoo by Stu Nettle 10 Comments Tue 9th Aug '11

Tags: billabong pro teahupoo , manoa drollet , raimana van bastolear , tahiti

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After six years of underwhelming conditions the Great Billabong Pro Teahupoo Swell Drought looks set to break. Since we wrote the last forecast a number of things – all interconnected - have occurred in Tahiti's swell window.

The first is that the Long Wave Trough has moved into position exactly as forecast – just to the east of New Zealand. The second is that a low pressure system has currently formed south of New Zealand and will be steered northward by the Long Wave Trough toward Tahiti. This was also forecast in the last instalment, however the difference is that the low pressure system formed earlier than expected and the swell will subsequently arrive in Tahiti earlier than expected.

The swell will hit Tahiti on the 12th, two days before the Air Tahiti Nui Von Zipper Trials begin. We expect it will be around 6 feet +, however it should ease back to 3-5 feet when the trials begin on the 14th. Residual swell energy should see the surf maintain around 3-5 feet through to the end of the trials period on the 17th.

Holding the trials in small to mid-size Teahupoo may have a large bearing on the main event considering that the two wildcards from the trials face the two top seeds. Are Raimana and Manoa as dangerous when Chopes is more puppy than pitbull? How much will luck play a factor?

The third thing that has happened - and this is the big one - is that the Long Wave Trough is now forecast to stall in its current position. Last week we mentioned that this scenario would be the best chance for organisers to get swell in the first half of the waiting period and it appears they've been praying to the right gods.

The stalled Long Wave Trough is set to send a series of strong cold fronts out of the Southern Ocean producing a strong south-west groundswell that will exceed the size of the pre-trials swell. How big will it get? Certainly big enough to put the jitters in the Teahupoo virgins such as Julian Wilson and Alejo Muniz.

Forced to put a number on it we'll say 8 feet + and revisit it in the next update later this week. We'll also have the first instalment from The Outsider – who'll be covering the competition from the channel – posted this week. //CRAIG BROKENSHA & STU NETTLE

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