Quiksilver Pro 2011 Quiksilver Pro: Early Surf Forecast

In: Quiksilver Pro 2011 by Ben Matson 8 Comments Wed 23rd Feb '11

Tags: forecast , Quiksilver Pro , Ben Matson

It's not a great short term forecast for the opening event on the 2011 ASP World Tour calendar.

What makes it more difficult to bear is that we've seen some very nice waves across the Gold Coast in recent weeks. After a lacklustre end to 2010, we began the New Year quite well with back-to-back trade swells and a couple of memorable cyclone events across the Gold Coast environs. However the swell window has since quietened down, and it's very likely we'll enter the Quiksilver Pro waiting period doing just that - waiting.

But right now, at first glance the synoptic charts actually look promising. Severe Tropical Cyclone Atu is positioned south-east of New Caledonia, holding strength as a Category 4 system with estimated wind strengths of around 90kts, or 166km/hr.

As if to round out the national froth, Victoria and Tasmania just scored a solid summer swell that lit up the points and reefs with unseasonably good surf. And a bevy of cyclones off the Western Australian coast are keeping the entire state's surfing community on high alert for another freak north-west swell.

But it's all just a short term mirage for the Sunshine State. STC Atu is tracking rapidly towards New Zealand, and despite its considerable size and strength, won't generate much more than a brief pulse of easterly swell for the East Coast. A moderate ridge of high pressure in the Tasman Sea will break down by the end of the week, drying up our existing supply of average trade swell (which Snapper can be quite effective with, actually).

From the weekend through until next Tuesday, we'll hold steady with small swells and northerly winds. It's not the size that's the problem at Snapper - we only need a couple of feet to produce contestable runners off the rock - it's the wind regime.

Light synoptic winds invariably lead to north-east sea breezes, which do no favours for the opening rounds of competition that prefers full days. And, migrating high pressure systems in the Tasman Sea - like we're expecting early next week - will eventually throw some muscle behind the north wind, rendering the majority of the Gold Coast quite bumpy and choppy.

A southerly change is on the cards for the middle of next week, which should bring about favourable conditions at Snapper Rocks, but current indications are that there won't be a lot of swell behind it - probably just a renewal of short period trade swell off the top of an establishing high pressure system. This should be enough to get up and running, but at this stage there are no significant swells on the long term charts.

From next Wednesday, we'll still have another week to get the job done, so there's absolutely no reason to panic right here and now. But, if you're hoping for a quick start and finish to the event, you're going to be a little disappointed this year.

For a more comprehensive surf outlook, check out Steve Shearer's forecast notes every Monday, Wednesday and Friday afternoon. We'll update a broad competition forecast overview at the end of the week, and throughout the event as well. //BEN MATSON

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