| 
 There
have been 42 events in this year's agonisingly long World Qualifying Series season.
A decent WQS campaign takes the dedicated QS warriors on about five global circumnavigations,
dropping in at surfing frontier outposts like Thurso, on the Northern tip of Scotland,
remote islands like Fernando de Noronha or Lanzarote in the middle of the Atlantic,
urban wastelands like Huntington Beach in LA or Chiba in Japan, and Euro glam
spots like Hossegor and Ericera.
A committed QS campaigner
will spend something like 500 hours (about three weeks) of their year on planes
or in airports and changes time zones so often that jet lag hangs around him like
a semi-permanent fog. He (I'm focussing on the men here - the women face difficult
but different challenges) will spend, if he is scrimping and scamming as much
as is humanly possible, about $30,000 minimum to experience this dubious pleasure.
He will run up massive phone bills or find his relationships failing through lack
of attention. He will deal with crap surf, mystifyingly inconsistent judging calls,
piranha-like hassling, and he will feel the constant pressure from stingy sponsors
demanding that he pulls out consistent and massive results and finds the time
to nail regular cover shots in a surf media that doesn't, by and large, respect
or pay attention to his world.  Right
now, this marathon drama is approaching its final act at Sunset Beach in Hawaii.
With only the O'Neill World Cup of Surfing to play out, the legions of hopefuls
that started this year with the dream of the Dream Tour dancing enticingly in
their head have been whittled down to a handful. For these select few, these great
dreams still live, although for most the death rattle can be clearly heard.
Just
to recap the rules - it can get pretty convoluted, so pay attention - there are
three ways you can get a ticket to play in the big games. Current CT players can
keep their seat by either finishing in the top 26 of the WCT this year, or by
being awarded one of the three injury wildcards. New players have but one route
in - they must finish in the top 16 of the World Qualifying Series. Surfers who
qualify on both tours use their CT qualification first, so their QS spot goes
to the next highest ranked QS surfer. In practical terms, this means that most
years an 18th or 19th place finish on the QS will get you in. With
things nearing their climax, it's clear that like last year, we're in for wholesale
change at the top level. Already, we have 11 reasonably certain CT qualifiers,
of which 9 are faces new (or newish) to the top tier. In and safe are France's
Jeremy Flores (the new youngest ever qualifier), South Africans (Ricky Basnett
and Royden Bryson), Brazilians (22 year old Bernardo Miranda and Victor Ribas,
the surfer with the most pro heats in ASP history), lone American Gabe Kling (finally),
and the traditional swag of talent from the Aussie production line. This year,
our boys include the resurgent, revitalised and re-invented Mick Campbell, Manly
powerhouse Dayyan Neve, brilliant aerialist Josh Kerr, contest machine Ben Dunn
and current CTer Troy Brooks.  Depending
on whether Troy and Victor can double qualify, there'll be between 4 and 6 slots
left for the rest of the battered and bruised warriors to fight over in the shifty
graveyard of hope that is Sunset. While there's a bit of science behind these
estimates, nothing's certain, and there are a multitude of variables to take into
account. However, disclaimers aside, it looks like there are perhaps 22 surfers
with a realistic, if slim, chance of making the grade.
Needing
to make Round 4 (that's 17th or maybe 25th at a pinch) are Brazilians Neco Padaratz
and Leonardo Neves. Neco, on his controversial way back from suspension for steroid
abuse, looks to have the easiest mountain to climb, but after being the personification
of angry, unrelenting determination from the get go, he has developed a worrying
case of the wobbles, failing to get the score he needed at the last three attempts.
Without seeding points after the suspension, Neco starts every comp from the first
round, so this one is harder than it looks.  Manly's
South Coast bred goofy Kai Otton has surprised many this year, and after a great
win in the Canary Islands and a strong Haleiwa result he has a legitimate and
realistic shot at joining his North Steyne clubmate Dayyan Neve. Like Neco, Kai
starts this comp from round one, so he will have to make three heats to grab the
17th he needs.
Needing a strong quarter finals result is Saffa
Travis Logie. He's reasonably safe to requalify through the CT as well, so getting
over the line here will open up another slot for someone down the list. Searching
to make the semis at Sunset are Rodrigo Dornelles and Luke Munro. Goldie surf
aristocrat Munro is once again agonisingly close, but like Neco has failed to
nail his chances earlier in the year when the pressure was far less intense. Dornelles,
like many of the Brazilians, is not a noted big wave rider, and Sunset is probably
not what he would choose as his field of battle. However, if Sunset repeats the
dismal and distinctly un-Hawaiian surf we saw at Haleiwa, he'll feel right at
home.  Also
needing a semi final outcome is Hawaiian Fred Pattachia. Fred will have no problem
with Sunset as the venue, and with his CT requalification already secure a good
result here makes the job of the rest of these aspirants just that little bit
easier.
Then we come to the wing and a prayer brigade. 15 surfers
will secure their spot by making the final at Sunset. Needing at least a third
are Kirk Flintoff and Patrick Beven. Second will open the door for Heitor Alves,
exiting CTers Davey Weare and Roy Powers, Ben Bourgeois, Pat Gudauskas, Dustin
Cuizon, Marcondes Rocha, Joel Centeio and Adriano de Souza. Up
there in the nosebleed section of the possibles are those only out is a win. Drew
Courtney, Tiago Piries, Russell Winter and maybe even Glen "Micro" Hall
(if all the planets align favourably) can dream this particular impossible dream,
as can the unfortunately named Brazilian Jihad Khodr, if he makes it. Jihad had
a real good chance going into Haleiwa, but immigration officials in Dallas, Texas
decided in their infinite wisdom that he wasn't the sort of person that the US
of A wanted to have around. You could imagine him chatting about bomb sets and
explosive turns, can't you? It's a galling way to lose your opportunity, but I
know I feel safer… I think.  And
so the recipe for Sunset is a brace of unrelenting crunch heats. Those in the
frame face a cruel and draining procession of acid tests that will determine huge
chunks of their future, and they face this challenge in the vast wavefield of
Sunset Beach. This isn't a spot where you can nail the takeoff in the crosshairs
and dial in the bombs. Sunset waves start with the outside reefs that stand up
and bend around lined up swell to build delicious but nasty roaming peaks that
can explode in any number of places. Add in a patchwork of solid N and NW swells
(as is currently predicted for opening day) and the complexity kicks up another
notch.
As if that wasn't enough, we throw into the mix a bunch
of gnarly local wildcards who know this wave as well as anyone can, and have a
way of owning any surf they paddle in to. Heat or no heat, you really want to
think twice before you hassle one of these buggers, no matter how much you have
on the line.  Competition
starts Saturday our time, and the opening day looks to have the best swell of
the first week or so. So far, this Hawaiian season has been an absolute stinker.
For reasons Ben Matson could probably better explain, the swell engines of the
North Pacific have been sleepy and lethargic this year, and what little swell
the North Shore has scored has been junky and from the North, rather than the
favoured long period, powerful Northwest and West groundswells. Something about
jet streams and blocking highs? And I'm sure El Nino and Global Warming are in
there somewhere as well.
Holding composure and form through
such difficulties and with so much to lose is bloody hard. The beautiful thing
is, no matter how hard this all gets, someone will manage to pull it off.  They
will find themselves, against all the odds, beginning to string together a run
of good heats. They will have the right waves come to them just when they desperately
need it. They will somehow stay glued on that big, over-ambitious hack in the
bowl. The hail mary end section barrel they thread will somehow stay open for
them. They will scrape through a stacked heat with scores that have no right to
be winning ones.
Eventually, they will find themselves pulling
on the lycra for the heat that really, really matters. They will fight down the
butterflies swarming in their guts. They will quieten the voice in their head
that cajoles and distracts them. They will flash on the immense, incredible journey
that has got them to this point. They will breathe deeply, sucking into their
nostrils the sweet, rich salt spray and savouring the low, loud bass rumble of
the distant whitewater, and they will know that what they do in the next few minutes
will echo through their life forever. Tune in to www.triplecrownofsurfing.com
to watch the joy (and the pain) flow. | 
